The news of Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract extension last week was met with a lot of approval from both Pirates fans and media alike. Hayes was given the largest contract in franchise history as he signed for eight years and $70 million.
That contract was larger than both Jason Kendall’s and Andrew McCutchen’s, and since Major League Baseball contracts are fully guaranteed, Hayes is set for life.
Obviously, there is no downside to having $70 million for Hayes, and of course there is no downside to having a star player like Hayes cost controlled for the next eight years for the Pirates.
On the surface, it seems like a win-win type of contract, one that both sides should be celebrating — but it isn’t. The deal is actually rather head scratching, at least from one side, and there will clearly be a winner and a loser by the time it is all said and done.
There is almost no way both sides can be winners in this contract because either this is going to be an incredible bargain for the Pirates or an incredible heist by Hayes. There is no other way to look at it than somebody is going to be unhappy with it in years six, seven and eight.
I understand why Hayes took the $70 million, but then again, I actually don’t. I get that money is guaranteed and I get that it means he is set for life, but if there is a such thing as betting on yourself and this is the opposite.
Not only did Hayes not bet on himself, he bet against himself — unless he doesn’t think he is as good as everyone else seems to believe. Hayes is supposed to be a star player. He was a first-round draft choice, has great pedigree, is an elite defensive player and is growing as a hitter.
There doesn’t seem to be a downside to Hayes as a player that would prohibit him from becoming one of the best third basemen in the majors. Third basemen get paid in full if you look at what they are making these days, and that would suggest Hayes has left a whole lot of money on the table.
Let’s take a look at what the three highest paid third basemen are making per year in the majors right now: Anthony Rendon, $35 million; Nolan Arenado, $32.5 million; and Manny Machado, $30 million.
They are obviously the standard-bearers and the stars, so maybe that range isn’t what Hayes would have gotten, but you have to search for the 17th highest-paid third baseman in the league to find one making less than $10 million per year.
Hayes is going to average $8.75 per year with $20 million of the $70 coming in the first two years. He essentially will make about $37 million his first four seasons, which is more than he would have made in the next four years through arbitration.
It is tough to have an exact number of what he would make the next four years under the system because it is based on performance, but assuming he has reasonably good seasons, he probably would have made in the $22-$24 million raise the next four years until free agency.
But then he would have become a free agent ,and assuming he progressed as a hitter to a consistent level and became the hitter the Pirates think he can be — combined with his defense — he could have cashed out. Even if you are conservative with it, he would have been able to command something like $20 million a year, which means eight years from now he would have left about $30 million on the table with this deal.
And that’s assuming he doesn’t become a superstar that can command maybe $30 million a year, meaning he left $70-$80 million on the table. At that point, he will be 34 years old, past his prime and not likely to cash in on one of these huge deals so many stars have gotten.
Again, maybe Hayes doesn’t think he will be that guy and wanted to secure his bag. Maybe his injury history spooks him and he didn’t want to bet on himself as a result. The flip side is he might turn out to be just a really average hitter or be injury prone, and thus he made the right call in signing the deal.
As for the Pirates, they are either going to have an absolute bargain for a really good player or they are going to have buyer’s remorse because Hayes doesn’t turn into the player they think he can be.
I suppose if Hayes is solid but not spectacular and plays well enough defensively for eight years, the price of his contract is right. But that seems like a long shot.
It is far more likely that either Hayes way outperforms his contract or the Pirates gave a lot of money to a player who never really lives up to his billing.
