Let’s not pretend Eddie Jones’ job is on the line if England lose today - but for me his reputation as a master coach is.
We know Jones’ bosses will stand by him even if the world’s richest and best-resourced team finishes outside the top three for the third Six Nations in five years.
But they will be faced with one unavoidable question: How have England ended up with a team in development a year out from the World Cup.
The answer is to be found in the approach of their coach. Eddie is a sort of rugby magpie in that he's always on the lookout for bright, shiny and new.
Why haven’t we got a side that has quietly evolved over time? Why does he always need to burn the house down?
With so much time, so much planning, so much contact with the players, why is there not a more seamless development of younger players into the squad, getting them ‘quiet’ experience like the Kiwis do?
So that when someone like Harry Randall finally gets his big chance he’s already got 18 caps from playing a bit here and there.
We’ve arrived at a situation where if England lose they go to France for a dead rubber with nothing on the table other than the chance to spoil someone else’s party.
After last year’s fifth-place and the Rugby Football Union’s mark-your-own homework inquiry, that would leave them in a dismal position a year out from the World Cup?
Of course they can win today. They lack the power Ireland possess but home advantage is considerable. England rarely lose at Twickenham.
But for them to beat Ireland the game needs to be loose and chaotic and I can’t see Andy Farrell’s team playing that way.
I used to think Andy was almost too forceful a personality for coaching but since taking the top job he’s shown himself to be thoughtful and considered and he’s empowered his team.
My heart will always back England, but my head says they are up against it. I go Ireland by four.
