Peter Dutton is facing the voters next Saturday at what appears to be the worst possible time for him and his party.
The disastrous shellacking the Liberals received in last weekend’s NSW election following on similar drubbings in Victoria and South Australia suggest the party’s brand is in deep trouble with voters.
The federal party received similar treatment at last year’s federal election.
Seat an acid test
Now less than a year later comes an acid test to retain the outer Melbourne seat of Aston, vacated by the controversial former Liberal cabinet minister Alan Tudge.
Mr Tudge saw an almost 12 per cent swing against him in May 2022 but managed to survive after reducing the normally rock solid safe seat to marginal status with a slim 2.8 per cent majority.
Labor is certainly giving it a big shot, backing its candidate Mary Doyle, a local who gave Mr Tudge the fright of his life last May.
The Liberal candidate, Roshena Campbell, is “a blow in” from inner-city Brunswick, which can count heavily against you in a by-election.
The Prime Minister last week played down Labor’s chances when he addressed the caucus, reminding his troops that it is 100 years since a government has taken a seat from an opposition at such a contest.
Though it is running an intense on-the-ground campaign backed by slick social media posts mainly targeting Mr Dutton, Labor’s big wigs are anxious to be seen as the under-dogs.
One pointed to the seat’s history as blue-ribbon Liberal and – with Mr Tudge gone – says it is more likely to revert to type especially if there is a lower voter turn out than last year – this is considered a negative for Labor.
But it is clear Labor believes Mr Dutton is its secret weapon based on its own polling and all the published polls that show him trailing Anthony Albanese badly in the approval stakes and as preferred prime minister.
It is no accident that last week the ALP polling booth posters in Sydney and around NSW all featured an unflattering picture of Mr Dutton overshadowing an image of Premier Dominic Perrottet.
Low profile
On Monday, Mr Dutton was keeping a low profile and refrained from asking one question in Parliament, prompting Mr Albanese to quip he had taken a vow of silence.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the Opposition Leader was hoping voters wouldn’t remember he was a senior minister of the Morrison government’s razor gang that left many key programs underfunded.
Health Minister Mark Butler in reply to a Dorothy Dixer – as prearranged questions are called – blamed Mr Dutton as the “person most responsible” for the current state of Medicare.
Mr Butler pointed to Mr Dutton’s record as health minister in the Abbott government that began a six-year freeze on doctors’ rebates and slashed $50 billion from hospital funding.
Labor’s targeted social media campaign tells voters: “The Aston by-election is your chance to send a message – the Liberals need to do better than Peter Dutton.”
But Labor’s big worry is the by-election has attracted scant mainstream media attention, and as a result there is no momentum around the contest.
No alternative to Dutton
While a loss would be a massive blow to Mr Dutton’s credibility, one seasoned Liberal says claims it would end his leadership are overblown, probably because there is no obvious alternative and the parliamentary ranks these days are dominated by his conservative allies.
The Liberals have taken no new post-Morrison policies to the contest, and if they manage to hang on they may well read this as vindication for not going “woke” on women, the climate or the Voice.
Their candidate is staunchly conservative and is on the record as being distinctly unimpressed by the Voice constitutional recognition.
While the Voice may not be an issue in the campaign, Mr Dutton has been silent on the party’s position when the referendum wording was debated.
Mainly because he realises that whatever way he goes party divisions won’t remain behind closed doors.
The last thing the Liberals need ahead of Saturday is a public brawl with the party being seen at war with itself.
The botched attempt of the Victorian Liberal leader John Pesutto on Monday to expel Moira Deeming from the party room over her neo-Nazi supported anti-trans speech at a Melbourne rally two weeks ago is unhelpful in that regard.
RedBridge political consultancy director Kos Samaras says that episode reinforced the perception the Liberals are obsessed with fringe issues.
He says opinion polling in by-elections is particularly difficult, but believes the electorate has a “better handle” on Mr Albanese after 10 months of government, whereas Mr Dutton has not yet established a new political personality from his performance in the Morrison government.
Mr Dutton is the one leader who has most to lose in the Aston by-election. The odds favour him and he’ll be desperately hoping that they hold.
