The fans in Frankfurt, Germany were supposed to get a world class fireworks display. Instead, they got a pallet of sparklers and a few Roman candles mixed in.
A game between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs stood as the crown jewel in the 2023 NFL International Series. But in place of an instant classic between two MVP candidates, German fans got thoroughly average quarterbacking, a handful of weak turnovers and just 35 total points. Worse yet, they were treated to one of the season’s most anticlimactic endings when a fourth-and-10 snap caromed wildly off Tua Tagovailoa’s hands for an easy stop and a pair of Patrick Mahomes kneel downs.
That duo wasn’t bad in the grand scheme of things, just disappointing. Mahomes and Tagovailoa entered Week 9 as two of the top four quarterbacks in the game. They combined for 378 passing yards — a number Mahomes has hit on his own 16 times as a pro.
That was bad, but did Sunday’s Frankfurt game showcase this weekend’s most disappointing starting quarterback? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 9 EPA against their 2022 and 2023 combined average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the ninth game (for most players) of the 2023 season.
5
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 9.9
Week 9 EPA: -1.6
Difference: 11.5 points worse
Tagovailoa was serviceable Sunday, but he needed to be … well, not great, but at least very good to lead a comeback from 21-0 in the second half vs. the AFC’s top team. This is not what happened. Tyreek Hill had a muted impact and Jaylen Waddle never got going after an early injury. Tagovailoa’s 21 completions were powered by 16 catches that came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, turning one of the league’s most explosive offenses into a dink-and-dunk factory.
Credit the Chiefs’ rising secondary, but Tagovailoa struggled with his timing and placement downfield. He completed just five of 14 passes that weren’t classified as “short” throws (fewer than 10 yards downfield).
Tagovailoa came into Week 9 completing 71 percent of his throws between 10 and 19 yards and 52 percent of his deep shots — 64 percent combined. On Sunday he barely got halfway to that mark. With the game on the line, he threw three straight incompletions and failed to corral a tough snap on fourth down. This didn’t look like a disaster from his stat line alone, but it served as more proof the Dolphins cannot be trusted against good opponents.
4
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 13.9
Week 9 EPA: 1.3
Difference: 12.6 points worse
Mahomes lands on the list not because he was particularly bad on Sunday, just because he was particularly bad when measured up against Patrick Mahomes. Like Tagovailoa, he had a season-low in completions 10-plus yards downfield in Frankfurt. But unlike his Dolphin counterpart, it’s because the reigning MVP didn’t really try.
Mahomes only threw seven passes that traveled more than eight yards downfield against a Miami secondary whose 99.0 passer rating allowed is sixth worst in the NFL. The Dolphins smothered Travis Kelce — four targets, 14 receiving yards — and dared the rest of the Chiefs to beat them. Sometimes this worked; check out the space Kelce leaves behind in his wake while multiple defenders follow him.
JET TAKES OFF ✈️ pic.twitter.com/h5fvzxDmi6
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 5, 2023
But for the most part it didn’t. Noah Gray led the team in receiving with three catches and 34 yards. Rashee Rice had a touchdown, but only two targets on the day after emerging as the team’s potential WR1. One of the league’s most explosive offenses just sorta existed on Sunday.
Maybe that’s jet lag, or maybe it’s a reason to be concerned. Fortunately, Mahomes has a Week 10 bye to figure things out.
3
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -5.8
Week 9 EPA: -21 (!!!)
Difference: 15.2 points worse
Young’s baseline is pretty low; roughly a touchdown’s worth of negative impact through the first half of his rookie campaign. On Sunday, he was more than three times worse than that, throwing twice as many touchdowns to Kenny Moore, who is an Indianapolis Colt, than anyone on his own roster.
One pick six is good. One Moore is better. ⚡️⚡️
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/e4z7VSoHBn
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 5, 2023
This looked especially bad on a day where CJ Stroud, the quarterback selected one spot after him, threw for five touchdowns (all to the his own teammates) and recorded a 24.8 EPA.
2
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 3.7
Week 9 EPA: -12.1
Difference: 15.8 points worse
Smith had little room to operate against a Baltimore Ravens defense that bullied his offensive line all afternoon in Maryland. Thus, in a game the Seahawks trailed for nearly three full quarters, the Seattle offense had few chances to make anything happen downfield.
The Ravens collapsed his pockets throughout the afternoon, sacking him once every eight dropbacks on average. This pressure took away the fractions of a second that meant DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett couldn’t find open space and, when they could, Smith couldn’t comfortably plant his feet and throw to them. That duo had 12 targets between them Sunday; they caught four of them.
Smith got little cover from a run game that averaged fewer than two yards per carry from its tailbacks, leaving this one to be ugly in every single phase. The veteran completed just 13 of 28 passes and got out-played by both Lamar Jackson AND Tyler Huntley. Gross.
1
Clayton Tune, Arizona Cardinals
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: n/a
Week 9 EPA: -34.3
Difference: I dunno since there’s no baseline, but good god.
Tune attempted five passes that traveled more than five yards downfield in his first NFL start. He had twice as many interceptions (two) as completions. This was a disaster, but at least Kyler Murray is coming back soon … right?
