One more race, and the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series playoff field will be official with the premier series’ top-16 drivers advancing to the 10-race postseason for a shot at the championship in November.
Through the first 25 races of the regular season, there have been 15 different race winners, meaning 15 drivers made themselves playoff eligible. But with so many different drivers in Victory Lane this season, the idea of “win and you’re in” has been much less of a guarantee — though it’s true now ahead of the regular-season finale.
Those on the playoff bubble, particularly winless drivers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., have needed repeat winners to keep themselves in playoff contention. Kyle Larson winning his second race of the season last weekend at Watkins Glen International certainly helped.
But now, headed into the last regular-season race — the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, NBC) — Blaney and Truex have one last chance to lock themselves in the playoffs. The problem for them, however, is that without a win, there’s a chance neither makes it.
A brief explanation of how this works
While it looked like a very serious possibility throughout the summer, it’s now impossible to have more than 16 different regular-season winners ahead of the playoffs. It’s simple math with 15 winners already and just one regular-season race remaining. So at least now, we can ignore hypothetical scenarios for more than 16 winners.
But if the final playoff spot comes down to points — which would be the case with a repeat winner at Daytona — it’s all about regular-season points, not playoff points earned throughout the season. (And to make the playoffs, drivers must be in the top 30 in points no matter what.)
Where Blaney and Truex currently sit in the regular-season standings
Entering the weekend, Blaney has a 25-point advantage over Truex, 779 to 754, ranking them third and sixth, respectively, in the regular-season standings. But shift to see how they stack up against the projected playoff field, and it’s a different story with Blaney being the last driver in the postseason and Truex just missing the cut.
Of course, their point totals will change after the Daytona checkered flag, but they’re now the only two drivers who could advance to the playoffs on points.
What if there's a new winner in 2022 at Daytona?
'@DAYTONA's oval has produced a first-time winner in the @NASCAR Cup Series in each of the past five seasons.@ToddGilliland_, @HBurtonRacing and @tydillon are looking for a last-chance win to punch their ticket into the playoffs this weekend. pic.twitter.com/IOWmGcmZUR
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 24, 2022
This is the disaster scenario for both Blaney and Truex if one of them doesn’t end up winning Saturday night. A new 2022 winner at Daytona who’s not one of them means there will be exactly 16 regular-season winners to fill 16 playoff spots — again, assuming the new winner is also among the top-30 drivers in the regular-season standings.
But if Blaney or Truex end up in Victory Lane at Daytona — a feat only Blaney has previously accomplished in the Cup Series — the winner would, obviously, advance to the playoffs.
What if there's a repeat winner in 2022 at Daytona?
As we previously alluded to, if one of the previous 15 race winners this season win at Daytona, then the final spot in the playoff hunt will be determined based on regular-season points. Blaney has the advantage over Truex now, but a strong finish from Truex and a poor one from Blaney could have them swapping spots.
So basically, if you’re rooting for one of these two drivers to make it to the playoffs, if one of them can’t win, you’re rooting for one of these previous winners to win again:
- Chase Elliott, 4 wins
- Kyle Larson, 2 wins
- Ross Chastain, 2 wins
- Joey Logano, 2 wins
- William Byron, 2 wins
- Kevin Harvick, 2 wins
- Denny Hamlin, 2 wins
- Tyler Reddick, 2 wins
- Christopher Bell, 1 win
- Chase Briscoe, 1 win
- Kyle Busch, 1 win
- Daniel Suárez, 1 win
- Austin Cindric, 1 win
- Alex Bowman, 1 win
Kurt Busch is also a race winner this season and has a spot in the playoffs. However, he won’t be winning Saturday’s race because he’s not competing in it. The 2004 Cup champion has been absent from the track since late July after he wrecked at Pocono Raceway and has yet to be medically cleared after suffering concussion-like symptoms. But NASCAR granted him a medical waiver to keep him eligible for the postseason, despite not entering every race this year.
What happens if there's not a new winner, and Blaney and Truex end up tied in points?
Tiebreaker time! And that means looking at which of the two has the best race finish during the regular season. Blaney again has the advantage here, thanks to his third-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway in June. That beats Truex’s best finish so far, which was fourth at both Richmond Raceway in April and at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in July.
But there’s more to this scenario. Via NASCAR.com:
However, if the two drivers finish in a points tie for the final spot and Martin Truex Jr. finishes second at Daytona, then that finish would be his best of the season and earn him the tiebreaker over Blaney.
If Truex Jr. finishes in third place, though, it won’t be enough in a tiebreaking scenario. Because the two drivers would have the same best finish of third, we’d go to the next best finish. Blaney would have four fourth-place finishes to fall back on as opposed to just two for Truex.
