The outcome of the Puthuppally Assembly byelection on September 5 will offer opposing fronts an unrepeatable opportunity to gauge their strengths and weaknesses and hone their political strategies ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] primarily seeks to put up a solid fight, at the very least in terms of an increased vote share compared to the 2021 Assembly polls.
It feels secure in controlling most of the panchayats and cooperative societies in the Puthuppally Assembly segment. The Congress has been in the Opposition since it was turfed off power for two consecutive terms. It seeks to wrest an emphatic win from the CPI(M) and BJP in its high-profile stronghold.
It seemed not lost on the Congress that the CPI(M) had diminished the late Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s lead in Puthuppally in the 2021 Assembly elections by a third. Nevertheless, the Congress’ emphatic win in the Thrikkarkara Assembly byelection in 2022 gives the party outsize confidence in Puthuppally.
The BJP perceives the bypoll as a local litmus test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development and welfare agenda and its all-out bid to woo the Christian community, a crucial voting bloc in Puthuppally.
‘Shadowboxing’
The BJP has cast the CPI(M) and Congress campaigns in Puthuppally as mere shadowboxing to hoodwink the electorate. Nevertheless, the CPI(M) and the Congress are apprehensive that the BJP might resort to last-minute tactical voting, which is arguably easier in a local byelection where the high-decibel political noise of a general election is relatively less.
The ruling front and the Opposition are also bitterly aware that small numbers could make a big difference in a tightly fought Assembly byelection. For one, CPI(M) State secretary M.V. Govindan had said a decrease in BJP’s vote share would invariably benefit the Congress.
Hard-fought campaign
Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan countered that CPI(M) and BJP were in cahoots in Puthuppally to further the Centre’s agenda for a Congress-free country. Puthuppally goes to the polls at the end of a hard-fought campaign in which national and State politics and municipal issues such as potholed roads, unfinished bridges, and lack of a civic station mattered almost equally.
The byelection results on September 8 could shape the political narrative in the run-up to the 2024 LS elections.
