The next general election is set to herald the most diverse parliament ever, with record numbers of ethnic minority and female MPs, according to a detailed analysis of candidate selections in winnable seats.
The study, by the thinktank British Future, projects that the number of ethnic minority MPs is most likely to rise from 65 to as many as 83, with much of this rise expected whatever the actual outcome of the election.
If the number of ethnic minority MPs does reach 75 or more, it will have increased fivefold in a decade and a half, having been just 15 out of 650 in the 2005 to 2010 parliament.
With the main parties now having selected about 90% of their candidates for winnable target constituencies and early retirement seats, the study also forecasts that there will be more than 250 women in the Commons after the next general election for the first time ever, up from 220 in 2019. About 153 of these would be Labour and 72 Conservative.
If Labour wins 326 seats, the slimmest majority possible, British Future estimates that there will be 254 women MPs (39% of the total) in the Commons. It says the proportion could easily rise above 40% with late selections or if Labour wins enough seats for a working majority.
The Conservatives can argue, however, that while their numbers of female and ethnic minority MPs are lower than Labour’s, they have had three female party leaders and prime ministers – Margaret Thatcher, Theresa May and Liz Truss – and a string of ethnic minority politicians who have occupied top posts in recent years, including Rishi Sunak as prime minister, Sajid Javid and Kwasi Kwarteng as chancellor, Priti Patel and Suella Braverman as home secretary and James Cleverley as foreign secretary.
In 14 of the constituencies in which Labour MPs have decided to stand down, seven of these have selected ethnic minority candidates. Some of these are among Labour’s safest seats.
Miatta Fahnbulleh in London’s Camberwell and Peckham will be defending a majority of 33,780. Abtisam Mohammad will defend a 27,273 majority in Sheffield Central, and Jas Athwal, who was selected in Ilford South in a contest with former shadow minister Sam Tarry, will defend a 24,101 majority in the London constituency.
More modest majorities will be defended by Baggy Shanker in Derby South (6,019), Satvir Kaur (6,213) in Southampton Test and Harpreet Uppal (4,937) in Huddersfield, but all are in with a good chance of winning, given that Labour is unlikely to lose in the seats it holds.
Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, said that while the cause of diversity was advancing, a chance to make more progress at the coming election may not be fully grasped because the selection rate of women had fallen in Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat party selections in this parliament – with more than six out of 10 “class of 2024” candidates being male in all three parties.
The Labour party, while having the strongest overall record on ethnic minority representation in the Commons, is selecting ethnic minority candidates this time at a much lower rate – 12% – than the 20% proportion now in the parliamentary Labour party (PLP) .
Katwala said: “The next parliament will be the most diverse ever, reflecting a new norm across political parties. More ethnic minorities and more women are likely to sit in the Commons than ever before. Parliament is gradually catching up with the electorate that it represents.
“But this needs to accelerate further if it is to keep pace with the growing diversity of our society and close the gender gap. Despite progress, parties could miss a 2024 opportunity to surf the wave of a ‘big change’ election and bring new gains for representation.
“While the Labour party is still well ahead of its rivals on gender and minority representation, advances could stall this time round. For the first time, the cohort of incoming Labour MPs could be less diverse than the current PLP.
“Parliament and political parties should collect data on ethnicity and social class, to track representation, identify gaps and ensure all groups are getting a fair chance.”
