Through the first half of the 2023 NFL season, the Carolina Panthers have trailed the Houston Texans quite decidedly in the first-round quarterback sweepstakes. While C.J. Stroud of the Texans has made the Offensive Rookie of the Year contest redundant and is starting to get legitimate NFL MVP talk, Bryce Young of the Panthers is still trying to find his feet.
Stroud has completed 173 of 279 passes (62.0%) for 2,270 yards (8.1 YPA), 14 touchdowns, one interceptions, and a passer rating of 102.9. He ranks second in DVOA and third in DYAR among all NFL quarterbacks this season — not just rookies.
Coming into Thursday night’s game against the Chicago Bears, Young has completed 161 of 252 passes (63.9%) for 1,375 yards (5.5 YPA), eight touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a passer rating of 77.1. He ranks second-to-last in the NFL behind Daniel Jones of the New York Giants in DYAR, and third-to-last in DVOA behind Jones and P.J. Walker of the Cleveland Browns.
Stroud is the Texans’ franchise quarterback without any doubt, while Panthers head coach Frank Reich is fielding questions about whether he should bench Young in favor of Andy Dalton.
“I suppose that’s a fair question,” Reich said after Carolina’s 27-13 Week 9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts. “But I can honestly tell you that thought’s never even came close to my mind.”
Whether or not the Panthers might eventually sit their first overall pick if things keep going the ways in which they’re going, things are bad with this team and this quarterback.
“I think it’s just understanding that, good or bad, you have to be able to turn the page,” Young said after the Colts loss. “Whatever it is you’ve done, positive or negative, doesn’t entitle you to anything next week and doesn’t entitle you to the next opponent. So just the importance of context.
“We’re all competitors. We all feel this. We’re going to feel this loss. I certainly do.”
“It is what it is. But at the same time, that doesn’t entitle me to anything, good or bad, moving forward. And in the NFL, no one feels sorry for anyone. And we have the opportunity where we have to turn the page, and we have to do it quickly. It’s a great opportunity for us to be able to bounce back.”
Nobody feels sorry for Young, and until he stops repeating some mistakes that have led to a lot of those seven interceptions, he’s going to have issues… because the recurrent themes are problematic for any quarterback.
So, let’s get into what those themes are.
Throwing jumpable balls.
Young’s regular-season debut was a 24-10 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and Young’s two interceptions came on similar concepts. Veteran safety Jessie Bates III had his eyes trained on Young’s intermediate in-cut throws, and Bates had the first two-interception game of his career.
There was this throw to tight end Hayden Hurst with 1:10 left in the first quarter…
…and this throw to receiver Terrace Marshall with 6:48 left in the third quarter. Both interceptions were against Cover-6, and Bates was all over both concepts.
“Yeah, the safety came down,” Young said after the game. “I obviously have to see in front of that and see his depth, especially where the turnovers happened. They led to points and that’s unacceptable. That’s basically it. I think our defense played great. We gave them some short feels. Again, that’s on me and things that I can’t do moving forward. I have to clean that up. I have to be better moving forward.
“I’ve got to see in front of those. Where the turnovers happen, that’s 100 percent on me. It’s on me to make sure I locate the safety. Obviously, I have to clean that up and do better moving forward.”
Getting to the intermediate and deep targets late.
Sorry about the Stroud-Young comparisons again, Panthers fans… but yikes. Stroud has completed 16 of 27 passes of 20 or more air yards for 550 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 143.1 — that’s the best for any quarterback in the NFL, regardless of tenure. Young has completed six of 15 deep balls for 187 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 81.8. Not horrible, as deep throws are notoriously low-efficiency prospects for most quarterbacks, but still.
In Young’s case, it’s the intermediate stuff that’s more of a problem. On throws of 10-19 air yards, he’s completed 26 of 58 passes for 390 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 51.7. One of Young’s two interceptions against the Detroit Lions in a 42-24 Week 5 loss, and one of Young’s three interceptions against the Colts in Week 9, came about because he had issues getting the timing of intermediate throws down.
Against the Lions with 3:43 left in the first half, Young tried to hit receiver Jonathan Mingo on a backside corner route, but the velocity wasn’t there. Cornerback Jerry Jacobs and safety Kerby Joseph had converged on the ball, and Jacobs came away with the prize.
And on Young’s third pick against the Colts, he fixated on Hurst as the No. 3 receiver inside on trips left, and threw it there despite the fact that linebacker Segun Olubi was clearly dropping as the deep middle defender in Tampa-2. Young probably had enough time in the pocket to hit Mingo outside to that side, but maybe he wasn’t comfortable with a throw requiring that kind of velocity.
Young’s other two interceptions against the Colts were more problematic.
Missing on the simple stuff.
Colts cornerback Kenny Moore II set a franchise record with two pick-sixes against the Panthers, and both of those touchdowns came on quick release routes to his running backs. These are not the types of throws in which you want to see your young quarterback — or any quarterback, for that matter — implode.
The first pick-six same with 31 seconds left in the first half. The Panthers had first-and-10 from their own 49-yard line down 13-3, and Reich was just trying to get Young in a rhythm.
That did not happen. Young threw to running back Chuba Hubbard, and Moore — as is his wont — was in the right place at the right time.
The second pick-six came with 13:52 left in the game. The Panthers had second-and-8 from their own 24-yard line down 19-10, and Reich was just trying to get Young in a rhythm.
That did not happen. Moore overthrew running back Miles Sanders, and Moore — as is his wont — was in the right place at the right time.
So, yeah… a lot of repeated problems here.
“Bad throws and bad decisions on both,” Young said after the game of Moore’s two touchdown receptions. “I have to manage risk/reward on both probably. Both could easily have been dirted balls, and especially the first one was just a better placed ball. That’s not on anybody but me. People are in position. That’s only on me to be better. That’s day one quarterback stuff. There’s no crazy depth to it. There’s no deeper story. Those are bad plays.
“Again, turned to 14 points. It’s the NFL. You’re not going to win games like that, and that’s on me. So, obviously, that’s stuff that I can’t do. I have be to better, and again, great thing is we have the opportunity especially now in a couple of days to be better. For me, now it is what it is. Again, watch the film, learn from it, and then do everything I can during the week to prepare, get better from it, and take it, learn from it, and then be better for Chicago this week.”
Well, there’s not much time for that.
Young's flaws aren't fatal, but he needs to fix them.
It’s not that Young came into the NFL as a disaster and he’s somehow revealing something about himself we didn’t see at Alabama. He’s having a lot of the same struggles young quarterbacks have. But the common, repeated, and sequential nature of those struggles are cause for concern. Because the last thing you want to see from your franchise quarterback is an inability to move past the things that upbraid you early in the NFL.
“Coach obviously has a ton of experience, been around a lot of great quarterbacks,” Young said this week of Reich. “You know, there’s the perspective part. But obviously, in the moment, as a competitor, I’m just trying to be my best every day. It’s not something that I necessarily think about. It’s just, you know, I have to be better. I have to be a lot better.
“As a competitor, you don’t think about next week while you’re on the field, you don’t think about next year. You don’t think whatever it is. It’s all about the here and now; it’s a results-based business. So, of course, coaches are going to have perspective, and it’s okay to have perspective.
But, for me, it can’t change my approach. It’s about day-to-day trying to win each day, trying to do the best I can, and you want to be the best. I have to be a lot better.”
Sounds good, and Young will probably eventually get there. But the proverbial clock is ticking.
