An indy-panel has ruled that a brand-new disease is the most likely cause of mass sea creature deaths across North East shores from 2021, in a new report.
The report, by the Crustacean Mortality Expert Panel, cleared the likes of pyridine or dredging from causing the deaths, saying it is very unlikely.
Meanwhile an algal bloom was also considered to be unlikely, as it failed to explain the twitching or length of the die-off. However, the panel admitted that it could not be ruled out as a causative factor.
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Teesside Live reports that scientists have found the most likely cause is a pathogen because it would explain the twitching in the crabs, the lengthy period of deaths and the effect on mainly crustaceans rather than other species. However, it also suggested that a combination of factors could have caused the unusual deaths, rather than just one.
The group was set up to assess the evidence and explanations for high crab and lobster mortality on Teesside's beaches between September and December 2021. The panel was convened by Defra chief scientific advisor Prof Gideon Henderson and the government’s top scientific advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance.
It met on three occasions, between December 2022 and January 2023, with subgroups also meeting to analyse specific aspects.
The report states it is 'about as likely as not', which is a 33 per cent to 66 per cent probability, that a pathogen new to UK waters caused the crab deaths. It went on to add: “There are pathogens known to cause similar symptoms to those observed in the North-east and these pathogens have caused mortality events and declines in crustacean populations around the world.
"No significant pathogens were identified in the North-east crabs but full molecular screening was not conducted at the time of the initial investigation.”
There was a less than 1 per cent chance that the capital dredging being carried out by Teesworks that started in September 2022 was linked to crab deaths, according to the panel. Maintenance dredging was considered very unlikely - less than a 10 per cent probability - because the maximum possible release of toxic chemicals, including pyridine, was significantly too small to cause crab mortality.
The panel also said there was a less than 10% chance that pyridine or another toxic pollutant was to blame. The report added: “Measurements of seawater by the Environment Agency and York University could not detect pyridine.
"Sediment measures of pyridine from dredged material and other toxic chemicals found in sediments in the Tees are significantly lower than the levels which would cause crab mortality.”
Government chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance has thanked the scientists who were involved in the panel. He added: “For a complex issue like this it is important to have a range of experts involved who can offer independent challenge and analysis.
"Whilst with the current data there cannot be a definitive answer, the options for possible causes and an analyses of likelihood are clearly laid out in the report."
The following people were on the panel:
- Gideon Henderson – Defra Chief Scientific Adviser
- Eileen Bresnan – Marine Scotland
- Jan Brooke – Environmental consultant
- Keith Davidson – Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS)
- Mike Dearnaley – HR Wallingford
- Mark Fitzsimons – University of Plymouth
- Alex Ford – University of Portsmouth
- Tamara Galloway – University of Exeter
- Crispin Halsall – University of Lancaster
- Tammy Horton – National Oceanography Centre (NOC)
- Mark Inall – Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS)
- Marian Scott – University of Glasgow
- David Wilcockson – Aberystwyth University
Campaigners fighting for fishermen who have lost livelihoods from the mass die off have however argued that the reports are 'a load of rubbish'. One councillor slammed it as a 'complete whitewash' - while conservatives say it is now 'definitively clear' it was not caused by dredging and fishermen now need help in rebuilding their industry.
Hartlepool fisherman, Stan Rennie, part of the North East Fishing Collective which is fighting for justice and to uncover the full truth about what happened, says the report doesn't answer any questions and has just come up with another theory. He said: "The report is a load of rubbish.
"They have come up with a theory, but there is not proof whatsoever. It is just beyond a joke. We won't stop fighting. The fight will continue until we get evidential proof of what happened."
He said they want justice for the loss of the fishing industry and the damage to the eco system. His solicitor, Tom Short, later released a statement on Mr Rennie's behalf stating: "Our client welcomes the panel’s finding that, contrary to DEFRA’s repeated assertions, the mass die-offs that continue to be seen across the North East coast are unlikely to be caused by a naturally occurring algal bloom.
“The conclusion that a novel pathogen is as likely as not to be the cause is noted, but it is of enormous concern that no direct evidence of such a pathogen has been found, and hence no mitigation measures are proposed to bring an end to these deaths. The position remains that there is significant uncertainty around the true cause of the die-offs and our client urges the Secretary of State to take immediate steps to uncover the cause.”
Alec Brown, Labour group leader at Redcar and Cleveland Council, said: "It's a complete whitewash, it's very thin and everything is unlikely or unknown. And now all of a sudden, we have 'parasites' involved. Did they eat the, 'algal bloom' that was first blamed?
"What I do know is that the report is a total whitewash. In 2023, we can create AI, vaccinate new viruses within months, fly people into space, but we can't identify what killed crabs. I don't buy it. I'm not anti-progress, I just don't want it to happen again. Unfortunately, money is obviously more important than protecting our coast for our children."
Commenting on the report Stockton North Labour MP Alex Cunningham said: "Today the government has been found out – but it is the people of Teesside who have paid the price."
He said for over fifteen months there has been calls for answers to this 'environmental tragedy of epic proportions'.
He said: "We now know that the algal bloom theory which the Prime Minister, ministers, Tory MPs and the Tees Valley Mayor have hidden behind for so long is an unlikely cause for the mass deaths. As far as I and many others are concerned the matter is very much not closed.
"This investigation is a good first step to getting to the bottom of this issue. We now need a fully independent and entirely transparent investigation into the matter with access to all areas for sampling and testing."
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