Pakistan's parliamentary elections are swiftly approaching, but many voters are feeling disillusioned and skeptical about whether this round of balloting can truly bring about any substantial change in a country grappling with political feuds, a deepening economic crisis, and resurgent militancy. With 44 political parties vying for seats in the National Assembly, alongside 70 reserved seats for women and minorities, the stakes are high. However, experts believe that the race for the next prime minister's post seemingly has only one top contender - Nawaz Sharif, a three-time former prime minister who recently returned to the country and had his past convictions absolved.
Sharif's return last October, following four years of self-imposed exile in London, coincided with the overturning of his sentences and convictions. On the other hand, his archrival, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, an ex-cricket hero turned Islamist politician, is currently behind bars and prohibited from contesting the upcoming vote. Although Khan enjoys a significant grassroots following, his downfall and Sharif's smooth return have led many to believe that the election outcome has already been decided.
The importance of these elections extends beyond Pakistan's borders due to the country's status as the fifth most populous nation globally and its position as an unpredictable Western ally. Pakistan shares borders with Afghanistan, China, India, and Iran, a region marked by hostile boundaries and tense relations. A strong and stable government in Pakistan is crucial for containing unrest, addressing economic challenges, and curbing illegal migration.
However, both Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League and Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf have conducted lackluster campaigns in recent weeks, exacerbating the general apathy among the approximately 127 million eligible voters. This lack of enthusiasm could have detrimental consequences for the next government, potentially leading to brain drain, further political instability, violent protests, and ultimately benefiting Islamic militants.
The backlash against the elite has been growing, particularly since Khan's arrest in May 2023, which triggered destructive rampages reminiscent of the aftermath of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination in 2007. Khan's supporters blamed the military for his downfall and vented their anger by causing damage to military buildings and property. The authorities responded with mass arrests, a crackdown on Khan's party, and the introduction of military trials for civilians. While this clampdown appears to have diminished some of the spirit of defiance, recent pre-election rallies in Karachi show that some individuals are still ready to fight for Khan. Scholar Ayesha Siddiqa warns of increasing instability as anti-establishment sentiment grows, emphasizing that the resentment toward the military has significantly amplified.
The current state of Pakistani politics presents a sense of déjà vu and apathy among the populace. Just a year ago, Khan was rallying for a comeback while Sharif was seemingly out of the picture in London. Now, the tables have turned with Khan behind bars and Sharif enjoying a resurgence, positioning him as the preferred candidate of the security establishment for several reasons. Sadly, Pakistan has not been known for holding entirely free and fair elections in the past, as ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation have been prevalent. Many voters, such as Noreen Khan, a first-time voter in Islamabad, have lost hope in a free vote and believe that Khan's party will not be allowed to win, despite its popularity.
The reversal of fortunes experienced by both Sharif and Khan aligns with Pakistan's ruthless power-seeking politics. Candidates from Khan's party have been forced to run as independents after being prohibited by the Supreme Court and Election Commission from using the party symbol on voting slips to aid illiterate voters in locating their preferred candidate. Consequently, Khan's undoing and Sharif's resurrection have created the perception of a predetermined outcome, leaving little opportunity to change that perception at this stage.
Samina Yasmeen, a political scientist at the University of Western Australia, envisions negative repercussions for Pakistan's already troubled economy if voters perceive Thursday's election as unfair. The lack of trust in the government that could arise from such a perception would hinder efforts to rebuild public confidence, create jobs, and deliver essential services. Pakistan is at risk of falling further into political divisions, eroding trust in the system, and potentially benefiting radical Islam, given the country's history of militancy. Yasmeen stresses the importance of a government that can restore a sense of safety for the people to prevent Pakistan from slipping down a treacherous slope.
As the parliamentary elections draw near, Pakistan stands at a critical crossroads. The disillusionment among voters, the emergence of a perceived predetermined outcome, and the potential for political instability and militancy create a challenging environment for the country. Whether these elections can truly bring about the change and progress that the people of Pakistan yearn for remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the world keeps a close eye on this nuclear-armed nation and hopes for a strong and stable government that can navigate the turbulent waters that lie ahead.
