Upbeat just about anytime he discussed a comeback from a second Tommy John surgery, Padres right-hander Mike Clevinger wiped his eyes outside the clubhouse last weekend as he revealed the truth about his ordeal: "I wasn't sure I was going to pitch again."
Dinelson Lamet knew exactly what he meant.
It wasn't the exact same decision in front of Lamet as he, team officials and team doctors pored over the scans of his right elbow and forearm some 20 months ago — the damage nor recommendation weren't at all as definitive as they were in Clevinger's case — but the fork in the road was daunting nonetheless.
Face the knife again, rehab for well over a year and attempt to recalibrate long odds of returning from a second elbow reconstruction, or undergo platelet-rich plasma therapy and hope the ligament holds up.
Clevinger had no choice but the former and Tuesday will make his second start since returning from a second Tommy John surgery. Lamet opted for the other route and is still searching for a semblance of the form that made him one of the majors' best pitchers until he walked off the mound in discomfort in September 2020.
"That's the point, that's the goal, right?" Lamet said through interpreter Danny Sanchez. "I think about that every day when I show up to the field. That's what I visualize. That's what I think about, being that guy that I was in 2020 and I have no doubt in my mind that I can get back to that."
Lamet was speaking in front of his locker Monday afternoon. Hours later, he was summoned from the bullpen in the eighth inning in a game the Padres were trailing 4-0 and presented an all too familiar mixed bag.
An 87 mph slider froze Patrick Wisdom for a strikeout. A middle-middle fastball to Yan Gomes led to a single to left field. Lamet walked the next hitter on seven pitches. After a replay review correctly overturned the second out of a double-play groundball, Ian Happ yanked a slider that caught too much of the plate to right for a two-run double.
It was the fifth straight appearance in which Lamet allowed at least a run. Through 8 1/3 innings, the 29-year-old Dominican has struck out 10 and yielded 10 runs — nine earned — on seven walks and two hits, including two home runs.
"We're trying to get him going," Padres manager Bob Melvin said Saturday after Lamet allowed three runs on two walks and a hit in two-thirds of an inning. "The stuff's there. It's probably just not locating very well. He's missing with his fastball. A good slider and then a bad slider. The stuff's really good. Maybe it's the bullpen and not pitching consistently. …
"I don't know what to tell you at this point."
Melvin's assessment seemingly is on target.
The stuff is good, and yet not nearly as good as it was.
The average four-seam velocity (95.1 mph) is roughly two ticks behind where it was when Lamet struck out 93 in 69 innings (2.09 ERA) as the NL's fourth-place Cy Young finisher in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season. The velocity of his slider (86.9 mph) is comparable (86.5 mph), but a closer look at the numbers shows the quality is clearly in question.
The expected slugging percentage — which accounts for exit velocity and launch angle of batted balls — against Lamet's slider is .462 this year, up from .278 last year and a miniscule .160 in 2020. Without that knee-buckling pitch to worry hitters as much, Lamet has also seen the expected slugging percentage on his four-seamer balloon from .438 in 2020 to .477 last year to an untenable 1.072 this year.
One reason: Lamet's go-to slider is a much flatter pitch these days, averaging 28.9 inches of vertical drop compared to 34.4 in 2020 and three inches of horizontal break compared to 4.3 inches last year.
The pitch isn't spinning as much either, averaging 2,261 rotations per minute after sitting at 2,455 RPMs last year and 2,614 in 2020.
While the sticky stuff crackdown became a line of demarcation for many pitchers last year, Lamet's post-PRP timeline includes a delayed start to the season, two subsequent trips to the injured list with forearm inflammation and bouncing between the rotation and the bullpen while posting a 4.40 ERA last year.
This year, the team's rotation depth led to using Lamet strictly in a relief role to start the year, one he admits is a work in progress after starting his entire career. He has gone as many as six days between appearances once this season and four days another time.
"I think for me the most important thing is just maintaining that energy and maintaining my focus," Lamet said. "Like I've said before, out in the bullpen you always have to be ready whenever the phone rings. … I have to be ready to go straight out of the gate, so it's making sure that my pitches are on point from the get-go."
Padres officials, while insisting he is healthy and potentially dominant enough to become a closer (that was the buzz in spring training), are as puzzled by Lamet's inconsistency as anyone. So much so there is talk of stretching Lamet into more of a multi-inning reliever to allow him more time to work into a rhythm.
Lamet hopes to move back into a rotation one day, which is not entirely out of the question in San Diego depending on the Padres' needs. Clevinger, Sean Manaea and Joe Musgrove are free agents after the season, Adrián Morejón still has starting aspirations as he makes his way back from his own Tommy John surgery and the arms behind the re-emerging MacKenzie Gore — from Ryan Weathers to Reiss Knehr — will give the Padres options as they draw up their offseason plans.
Lamet hopes he's forced himself into that conversation by then.
But first things first: A return to form following that initial "group decision" to forego a second surgery for the PRP path.
"I'm 100 percent confident in that decision," Lamet said.
He added: "Honestly at the beginning there was a little bit of frustration, but really I'm just focused on being grateful, grateful to God, grateful to my team for the opportunity … and grateful for the opportunity to pitch and be healthy right now."
