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SportsCasting

Andy Newton

Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends Highlight Key 71% Weight Stat

Gold Paddy Power Cheltenham Ginny Destiny Paul Nicholls

Top racing at Cheltenham this weekend and to help find the winner of one of the main races we’ve got the key Paddy Power Gold Cup trends – one of which is a 71% weight stat that could rule some of the runners out.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends Point To Horses With 11st Or Less

See below the standout Paddy Power Gold Cup trends to help find the best profile of past winners – which you can use to apply to this year’s runners for the main Cheltenham November Meeting contest.

There are several decent stats to look out for, including the fact that 71% of the last 21 winners carried 11st or LESS in weight.

According to the best horse racing betting sites in the UK the Paul Nicholls-trained Ginny’s Destiny will go off favourite – but with 11st-2lbs to carry this 8 year-old will have this key weight Paddy Power Gold Cup trend to overcome.

Here are the horses expected to run that will carry MORE than 11st.

Protektorat (12st)
GA Law (11st 2lbs)
Ginny’s Destiny (11st 2lbs)
Editeur Du Gite (11st 1lb)

Look For Horses Aged 6-9 Years-Old To Win This Cheltenham Race

Next up is to look for horses aged between 6-9.

Why, well a massive 24 of the last 25 winners ticked this Cheltenham trend.

Yes, of the 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup runners, most will fit the bill, but we could still have a 5 year-old entry in Madara and two 10 year-olds in Editeur Du Gite and Janidil that you can put a line through.

We can also take this age stat further by knowing that 10 of the last 22 winners were aged 7 years-old, while 64% of the last 22 were aged 6 or 7.

With Ginny’s Destiny aged 8, some might cling to his age being too old – we’ve only seen four winning 8 year-olds since 1998, which to equates to just a 15% return over this 26-year period.

Paddy Power Gold Cup Trends and Stats For 2024 Renewal

Find the best profiles based on past horse racing winners of the 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup.

21/22 – Won over at least 2m4f over fences
21/22 – Won by a UK-based trainer
21/22 – Raced at Cheltenham in the past
18/22 – Priced 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/22 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
15/22 – Won at Cheltenham before
15/22 – Carried 11st or less in weight
14/22 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
13/22 – Won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
12/22 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (3) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/22 – Favourites placed
11/22 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
10/22 – Aged 7 years-old
9/22 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/22 – Won last time out
5/22 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/22 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/22 – Favourites
3/22 – Raced at Carlisle last time out
2/22 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/22 – Irish-trained winners
24 of the last 25 winners aged between 6-9
Just 4 winning 8 year-olds since 1998
Last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
15 of the last 21 winners carried 11-0 or less in weight
Paul Nicholls has had 13 placed horses (three winners, Stage Star, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 47 runners
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 10/1

Paddy Power Gold Cup Race Details 2024

📅Date: Saturday 16th November 2024
⌚Time: 2:20pm
🏇Racecourse: Cheltenham
🔄Trip: 2m4f
💷Winning Purse: £84,405
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV

You can also watch SportsCasting’s Andy Newton on this week’s Final Furlong podcast – previewing the best of the weekend horse racing.

Just FOUR Winning Paddy Power Gold Cup Favourites Since 2002

As mentioned, likely Paddy Power Gold Cup favourite with the best betting sites in the UK will be Ginny’s Destiny – but with only four winning market leaders in the last 22 runnings, this is only a fair return (18%).

However, if you do like punting the jollies – this race saw a winning favourite 12 months ago when Stage Star returned 4/1.

But that horse was the first market leader to win since 2009 (Tranquil Sea).

On a plus though 50% of the last 22 favourites have been placed.

Trainer Paul Nicholls Has Won The Paddy Power Gold Cup Three Times

Trainer Paul Nicholl has won this prize last year with Stage Star and in total has landed the race three times – with Caid Du Berlais (2014) and Al Ferof (2012) his other two winners.

The Ditcheat handler also has a nice recent with his horses being placed – he’s seen 13 horses hit the frame from his last 47 (28%) runners in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

The Irish Have A Poor Record In The Race

If you are thinking of siding with any of the Irish runners in the race – then you might want to think again.

Unlike the bulk of the Cheltenham Festival races run in March, the Paddy Power Gold Cup hasn’t been that good a return for them.

Ireland-based trainers have saddled just one winner in the last 22 – which was the already mentioned Tranquil Sea in 2009 – who was trained by Edward O’Grady.

Potential Irish-Trained Paddy Power Gold Cup Runners

Janidil (Willie Mullins)
Lets Go Champ (Henry De Bromhead)
Hartur D’arc (Gavin Cromwell)

Look Out For Horses That Finished In The Top 4 Last Time Out

Heading into the Paddy Power Gold Cup off the back of a win is also a positive to note.

This is supported with 15 of the last 22 winners having finished in the top four in their last race.

Previous Cheltenham Course Experience A Big Plus

Cheltenham is famous for being one of the best ‘horses for courses’ tracks and that is backed up again in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

A massive 21 of the last 22 winners of this race had run at Prestbury Park before – while 15 of those 22 (68%) had also won at the course.

Backed up again in 2023 with Stage Star having won at the track twice before over fences.

ITV Racing To Show The 2024 Paddy Power Gold Cup LIVE

There is a huge ITV Racing coverage this week too – with the cameras at Prestbury Park to take in 12 races in total across the three days (4 on each afternoon).

One of these races is the Paddy Power Gold Cup, which will be shown LIVE at 2:20 on Saturday.

1:45 Cheltenham – Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV
2:20 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
2:55 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m ITV
3:30 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f ITV