The Green Bay Packers (1-1) will welcome the New Orleans Saints (2-0) to Lambeau Field for the home opener on Sunday. The Week 3 showdown in Green Bay features a Packers team coming off a disappointing loss to the Atlanta Falcons on the road in Week 2 against an undefeated Saints team with two one-score wins to open 2023.
While the Packers played in Atlanta on Sunday, the Saints were in Carolina on Monday night, giving Matt LaFleur’s team the preparation and recovery edge.
Buy Packers TicketsHere are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 3:
Run defense
The Packers don’t have to worry about running back talent like Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier this week, but the run defense still must rebound in a big way after a disappointing Week 2 effort. Last week, the Saints got by with Taysom Hill carrying nine times for 75 yards and Tony Jones Jr. producing 34 yards and two scores on the ground. Rookie Kendre Miller is expected to play a role this week as well. The Saints won’t have Alvin Kamara (suspension) or Jamaal Williams (injury), so no excuses talent-wise. The Packers must play better up front and tackle more consistently this week. Being able to pressure the passer — like the Packers can and want to do — doesn’t matter nearly as much if the run defense doesn’t earn pass-rushing opportunities.
Jaire vs. Olave
The season is only two weeks old, but Saints receiver Chris Olave is on pace for over 100 catches and nearly 1,700 yards after catching 14 passes for 198 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. The 2022 first-round pick is a dynamic playmaker who can threaten all areas of the field with route-running and speed. Will the Packers have Jaire Alexander travel with him? Last week, Drake London got the best of Alexander on too many coverage snaps. While London is a giant target, Olave is more Alexander’s type. This could be a fantastic one-on-one matchup on most passing snaps when the Saints have the football on Sunday. Elsewhere, Rasul Douglas will have to combat veteran Michael Thomas and speedster Rashid Shaheed.
Offense's response and a big test
A big opportunity for the offense arrives on Sunday: not only to bounce back from the fourth-quarter disaster in Atlanta but also to produce and play clean against a well-coached veteran defense with playmakers at all three levels. The Saints haven’t allowed more than 20 points since Week 9 of last season. They play physical up front, fly around at the second level and aggressively cover on the backend. Can the Packers run the football on early downs, and can Jordan Love continue converting in big spots while avoiding negative plays? Sunday’s visit from the Saints — who rank fifth in yards and points allowed — will be the toughest test of the season for the young Packers offense. Don’t be surprised if the Saints expose a flaw or two, especially if the Packers don’t have one (or both) of Christian Watson and Aaron Jones.
Situational stress
The Packers are the third-best offense converting third downs and tied for the best offense turning red-zone trips into touchdowns through two weeks. The Saints, meanwhile, have the third-best defense stopping third downs and the second-best defense keeping offenses out of the end zone in the red zone. In a game where points could be limited, the better team on third down and in the red zone will create a big advantage. Overall, the Saints have allowed only one offensive touchdown this season, and it came late in last week’s win over the Panthers. Matt LaFleur will need to dial up some great stuff for Jordan Love and the Packers to keep the offense on the field and score points on Sunday.
Pressuring Carr
The Packers have one of the NFL’s highest pressure rates on defense through two games. The Saints have the 28th-best pass-blocking efficiency (PFF) and 26th-best pass-block win rate (ESPN). Can the Packers control the game at the line of scrimmage? While the Packers have their own issues along the offensive line (who is going to start at left tackle and left guard?), the Saints have really struggled up front in the passing game, especially at left tackle and on the interior. This is a chance for Joe Barry’s defense — which is built on preventing big plays and getting after the quarterback — to do what it does best.
Prediction: Packers 20, Saints 18 (1-1)
The Saints are going to challenge the Packers in big ways. This is a (currently) unbeaten team with a veteran quarterback, weapons at wide receiver and an experienced, well-coached and playmaking defense. The guess here is nothing about Sunday will be easy. But I like the Packers at home for a few reasons. For starters, the Saints are playing the second of back-to-back road games and lost a day of prep/recovery due to playing on Monday night. Second, the Packers defensive front could really give the Saints problems in the passing game, and I don’t see a run game capable of really threatening Green Bay’s biggest weakness. In an ugly contest, the Packers escape with a win in Jordan Love’s first home start.
