The Green Bay Packers (5-8) will host the Los Angeles Rams (4-9) on Monday night at Lambeau Field. The matchup pits the No. 1 seed in the NFC vs. the defending Super Bowl champion from a year ago, but the 2022 season has gone much differently for both clubs.
The Rams are already eliminated; the Packers are hanging on for dear life and need to win out to have a chance to sneak into the playoffs.
Here’s a quick breakdown of who has the advantage between the Packers and Rams:
When Packers have the ball…
DVOA: Packers No. 11 offense vs. Rams No. 14 defense
DVOA: Packers No. 14 passing offense vs. Rams No. 23 passing defense
DVOA: Packers No. 7 rushing offense vs. Rams No. 5 rushing defense
PFF: Packers No. 13 offense vs. Rams No. 5 defense
PFF: Packers No. 9 passing offense vs. Rams No. 17 coverage
PFF: Packers No. 3 pass-blocking vs. Rams No. 20 pass-rushing
PFF: Packers No. 3 rushing offense vs. Rams No. 1 rushing defense
The Packers appear to have the slight advantage here, especially considering this offense has scored 28 or more points in three of the last four games and is ascending thanks to play of standout rookie Christian Watson. The Rams’ ability to stop the run does present a problem for the Packers, who rely on the run game and run action to move the football. Los Angeles looks particularly vulnerable in the secondary, and the Rams don’t feature a top pass-rush. Will the Packers stick with the ground game even if it’s tough sledding?
When Rams have the ball
DVOA: Rams No. 26 offense vs. Packers No. 23 defense
DVOA: Rams No. 26 passing offense vs. Packers No. 8 passing defense
DVOA: Rams No. 26 rushing offense vs. Packers No. 32 rushing defense
PFF: Rams No. 26 offense vs. Packers No. 20 defense
PFF: Rams No. 25 passing offense vs. Packers No. 9 coverage
PFF: Rams No. 29 pass-blocking vs. Packers No. 19 pass-rushing
PFF: Rams No. 32 rushing offense vs. Packers No. 26 rushing defense
The Packers’ big advantage here comes in the passing game, even though the team’s pass rush has fallen off in a big way since losing Rashan Gary. The Rams will start Baker Mayfield at quarterback and are limited at wide receiver. The battle to watch is when the Rams run the football. Los Angeles has struggled to be consistent on the ground all season, but the Packers might be the worst run defense in football. If the Rams can find ways to establish the run, a lot of points are possible here, even with Mayfield under center.
Special teams
DVOA: Packers No. 30 special teams vs. Rams No. 22 special teams
PFF: Packers No. 16 special teams vs. Rams No. 23 special teams
Neither team should have a big advantage here, but poor special teams play always provides the opportunity for a big momentum swing in-game. The Rams probably need to be the team creating it on Monday night.
Verdict
The Packers are betting favorites in this game for a reason. The Rams have scored 20 or more points just three times in the last 10 games, are likely to be missing a few star players and have nothing to play for in terms of playoff contention. The Packers are heating up on offense, got healthy over the bye week and will play in the cold at Lambeau Field, and this team knows it needs four wins to have a shot at the postseason. If the Rams can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and get a few big plays from Mayfield, the visitors will have a chance to spring the upset. But the Packers are better along the offensive line and have the better quarterback, and Aaron Jones and Christian Watson provide two game-breakers. It’s hard to imagine the Rams scoring enough points in this one. The Packers by a touchdown seems about right.
