The Green Bay Packers (5-8) and the Los Angeles Rams (4-9) will finish up Week 15 with a showdown between disappointing NFC teams on “Monday Night Football” from Lambeau Field.
The defending Super Bowl champs would be eliminated from the playoffs officially with a loss to the Packers, who need to win out over the final four games to sneak into the postseason after securing the No. 1 seed in 2020 and 2021.
Both teams are coming off a comeback win. The Packers stormed back to beat the Bears in Chicago before the bye week, while the Rams used two late touchdowns to shock the Las Vegas Raiders in Los Angeles to open Week 14.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for MNF:
Stoppable force meets movable object
What happens when the worst rushing offense in football meets the worst rushing defense in football? The Rams are averaging 3.7 yards per carry and rank 32nd in PFF’s run grade this season, while the Packers are giving up 5.0 yards per carry and rank 32nd in run defense DVOA. Something has to give here. What happens if the Rams get Cam Akers going on the ground? It’s tough to imagine the Rams consistently moving the football without a supporting ground game, especially in the cold in Green Bay, so stopping the run on early downs will be paramount for the Packers. Expect Sean McVay to have a few new wrinkles ready in the run game for Joe Barry.
Packers predicament
The Packers offense might be in a tough spot. The Rams are a top defense stopping the run and will likely challenge the Packers at the line of scrimmage in the run game, even without Aaron Donald. How will the Packers respond if the early returns on the ground aren’t positive? There are vulnerabilities in the Rams secondary, and the Packers will go into the game with a healthy quarterback and five healthy receivers, so throwing the football might be the path of least resistance. But as this team has shown over and over, becoming one-dimensional or struggling to run the ball is the quickest way for the Packers offense to become sluggish and unproductive. Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers have to find the right balance on Monday night.
Chance for Packers secondary
The Rams will start Baker Mayfield, who has been with the team for a week and a half, at quarterback, and the receiving group in Los Angeles consists of Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, Brandon Powell and Austin Trammell. This is not a threatening passing game in terms of talent and potential, and it has struggled for most of the 2022 season. Can the Packers force Mayfield into bad decisions? He threw four picks at Lambeau Field last year, including two to Rasul Douglas. The starting Packers secondary has a massive talent advantage and should dominate the game, especially if the pass rush can come alive against a poor offensive line.
Will A.J. Dillon, Christian Watson stay hot?
The weather is getting colder, but Dillon and Watson are heating up. Dillon has a 20-yard touchdown run in two straight games and is coming off a season-high 93 rushing yards against the Bears. Expect big No. 28 to get plenty of the football on Monday night in the cold. And what about Watson, who has eight touchdowns in four games? The Packers keep finding ways of getting him the football in space, and his speed is opening up everything else for the offense. It will be very interesting to see if Matt LaFleur has anything special cooked up for Watson coming out of the bye week.
Which pass rush makes a play?
Neither team’s pass rush is to be feared. The Rams won’t have Aaron Donald; the Packers are without Rashan Gary. But you can bet one team’s pass-rushing group will make a big play on Monday night, especially considering the conditions and the stress that will likely be placed on both passing games. The Packers look like the better bet considering the state of the Rams offensive line. If the defense can get Baker Mayfield under pressure a few times, turnovers are possible. But the same can be said for Aaron Rodgers, a 39-year-old quarterback who won’t love playing in the cold if he’s getting hit all night.
Prediction: Packers 24, Rams 13 (6-7)
The Packers won’t have David Bakhtiari, leaving rookie Zach Tom to start at left tackle. The Rams have shown an ability to stop the run throughout the 2022 season. And Sean McVay has had extra time to dial up plays for a matchup against a Joe Barry-led defense. Those are the concerns for Monday night. Everything else points Green Bay’s way. The Packers have big advantages at quarterback and offensive line, and it’s hard to imagine the Rams’ talent-lacking offense scoring enough points to win without a huge performance from the run game and giveaways from the Packers. Matt LaFleur’s team is capable of losing to any team, but this should be a comfortable victory if the Packers are to go on the win streak to end the season.
