The Green Bay Packers (2-1) will welcome Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots (1-2) to Lambeau Field for a Week 4 battle between two of the most successful franchises of the last 20 years.
In fact, since 2008, no two teams have won more games than the Patriots and Packers.
This will be just the third meeting between the two teams since Aaron Rodgers took over as the starter in Green Bay. Two Patriots wins (2010, 2018) sandwich the lone Packers win (2014) during the stretch.
After beating Tom Brady in Tampa Bay last week, can the Packers extend their winning streak to three games against Belichick?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 4:
The other running back duo
The Patriots have a big unknown at quarterback, regardless of whether Mac Jones or a backup is the starter, but New England’s run game isn’t a question mark. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are averaging almost 5.0 yards per carry and over 3.5 yards after contact, with three touchdowns and also 13 catches. Through three weeks, the Patriots rank first in Rush DVOA at Football Outsiders, highlighting how effective and efficient New England has been in running the football to start this season. The Packers, meanwhile, are still 32nd in Run Defense in DVOA. Can this gigantic gap in the run game give the Patriots a chance on the road, even if Jones doesn’t play? The Packers need to fit the run well, especially out of nickel personnel, and tackle consistently.
3 to watch on Pats D
Three names to watch on the Patriots defense: Edge rushers Matthew Judon (No. 9) and Deatrich Wise Jr. (No. 91) and cornerback Jonathan Jones (No. 31). Judon and Wise have 20 total pressures in three games, and Wise is coming off a three-sack game against the Ravens. They will provide a nice test for David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, who are still shaking off the rust after returning from major injuries. The Patriots have to pressure Aaron Rodgers to have a chance at an upset. In the secondary, Jones is emerging as a top corner, especially in man coverage. Will the Patriots have him follow Allen Lazard? Or use him to try to erase Romeo Doubs? The rest of the Patriots secondary looks beatable.
Can 33 and 28 get back on track?
The Buccaneers did a terrific job taking away Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, especially over the final three quarters. Expect Bill Belichick and the Patriots to key in on the running back duo. They are the engines of the offense when it’s operating right. Does New England have the talent along the front and at linebacker to make it happen? We’ll see, but Belichick knows how to scheme up defenses to take away players. If the Pats key on the running backs, the Packers need counters, especially in the passing game against man coverage. Based on potential matchups, Jones could have a big afternoon as a receiver.
Beating the blitz?
Aaron Rodgers sliced and diced Tampa Bay’s blitz in the first half on Sunday. The Patriots also blitzed Lamar Jackson in Week 3 and Tua Tagovailoa in Week 1 on roughly 40 percent of dropbacks already this season. Would Belichick dare blitz Rodgers this week? It’s a dangerous game for a defensive playcaller, but it’s fair to wonder if New England is good enough in the secondary for Belichick to just sit back and let Rodgers dictate the action. It was years ago now, and the Packers offense is so much different, but the Pats weren’t afraid to blitz Rodgers in 2018. Keep a close eye on how Belichick is calling the game defensively, and how it shifts within the game. The Packers have said all week that they don’t really know what to expect from an uncommon opponent.
Special teams...edge?
The Patriots are last in net punting average through three games. Could this be an opportunity for Amari Rodgers to finally make a big-time impact on a game as a returner? Devin Duvernay’s 43-yard punt return set up a touchdown for the Ravens against the Pats last weekend. Also, Myles Bryant, who returns punts for New England, has a fumble in two straight games, so maybe the Packers can create a turnover play in the third phase on Sunday. Matt LaFleur’s team is a big favorite and needs to avoid giving the Patriots any kind of edge on special teams. In other words, an offensive lineman can’t return a kickoff 71 yards (see: Dan Connolly, 2010).
Prediction: Packers 28, Patriots 17 (1-2)
This prediction business isn’t going so well to start the 2022 season, but a Packers win feels like a safe bet here against either a hobbled starting quarterback or a backup at Lambeau Field. The Patriots have the run game and pass-rush to make this a tough, physical battle, and you can bet Bill Belichick will have a wrinkle or two ready for Aaron Rodgers, but Green Bay is dominating on defense and improving along the offensive line, and the offense showed enough flashes early in the game last week to think the group is close to having it all click. The guess here is that the Packers start fast, dictate the game throughout and coast to a win against a team that gave up 37 points and turned the ball over four times last week.
