The Green Bay Packers (3-5) and Detroit Lions (1-6) will both attempt to snap long losing streaks on Sunday at Ford Field.
The Packers have lost four straight. The Lions have lost five straight. Barring a tie, one team will exit Week 9 with a long-awaited win.
Matt LaFleur’s team is 5-1 in six games against the Lions, with the lone loss coming in last year’s season finale at Ford Field.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Sunday’s NFC North battle in Detroit:
Can the Packers contain the run?
The Lions are averaging 5.2 yards per rushing attempt and rank seventh in Rush DVOA through seven games. De’Andre Swift has been a big-play machine and should return from injury, while Jamaal Williams continues grinding out yards and finding the end zone (eight touchdowns). While the Lions won’t be afraid to throw the football, the strength of this team is upfront in the run game, and it’s clear one of the fatal flaws of this Packers defense is still stopping the run. Strength vs. weakness. You can bet the Lions will try to press this advantage on Sunday.
Can the Packers throw the ball downfield?
If the Packers were ever going to snap out of their slump in the passing game, this has to be the week. The Lions defense is giving up 8.4 yards per attempt (last) and a 108.5 passer rating (last) this season and ranks 28th in pass-rush grade and 32nd in coverage grade at Pro Football Focus. Aaron Rodgers should have time to throw, and the wide receivers – even this banged-up group – should be able to get open consistently. Will this be the week it finally clicks in the downfield passing game? Building the offense around the run game works, but everyone in the building knows how important the intermediate and vertical passing game is to fully unlocking the offense.
Tackling time
The Packers missed a season-high 16 tackles on defense last week. Dan Campbell and his offensive staff probably spent all week devising ways to stress the Packers physically in the run game and get playmakers – like Amon-Ra St. Brown – in positions to get the ball in space and make defenders miss. The Packers can have all the talent in the world on defense but it doesn’t really matter if a group can’t consistently get people on the ground. Tackling is a foundational aspect of winning football. Joe Barry’s defense needs a big bounceback performance against the Lions on Sunday or Detroit is going to create a bunch of explosive plays.
Defensive score?
The Lions are one of only four teams to give up multiple defensive touchdowns this season. In fact, the three defensive touchdowns allowed by Detroit – one fumble return, two interception returns – rank as the second-most in football entering Week 9. Can the Packers defense pressure Jared Goff into a game-changing mistake on Sunday? The pass-rush has been close to so many big plays this season, especially recently. Maybe the luck turns this week and pressure results in sacks and turnover opportunities. Goff’s 13 “turnover-worthy plays” rank as the second-most among quarterbacks this season.
Which young WR steps up?
Let’s lean into the “2016 Packers” comparisons. In the first game of the “Run the Table” streak, Davante Adams caught a pair of touchdowns and finished with 113 receiving yards to help the Packers beat the Eagles on the road. Which receiver is going to step up and help ignite this run? Romeo Doubs flashed last week. The Packers had a big plan ready for Christian Watson. Maybe Samori Toure gets more snaps. To be fair, the 2022 receivers don’t at all resemble the 2016 receivers. But someone has to step up for Aaron Rodgers if the Packers are going to get this thing rolling, and there’s no better opportunity than this week against a bad passing defense.
Prediction: Packers 28, Lions 27 (3-5)
Must-win time in Week 9? It sure feels like it. The Packers’ margin for error is gone, and this team has to get hot now or risk the season fading into obscurity over the final two months. A loss in Detroit to the one-win Lions would be a demoralizing blow. And it’s possible because Dan Campbell’s team can move the ball and score points, especially at home. I still think the Packers take care of business in what should be a highly competitive and back-and-forth contest. They should be able to get the passing game going, and I bet the defense pressures Goff enough in big spots to create negative plays. Here’s my wild guess: The Lions start fast, but the Packers claw back and eventually take over the game after a defensive touchdown.
