The Green Bay Packers will host the surging Miami Dolphins for the Thanksgiving nightcap at Lambeau Field on Thursday night.
Can the Packers, who are 8-3 and cruising toward a playoff spot, score a big holiday win over the Dolphins, who have won three straight games after a 2-6 start?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Week 13:
Love vs. Tua
This holiday showdown provides a tasty matchup of quarterbacks drafted in 2020 who cashed in with big deals this past offseason. Jordan Love was drafted 21 picks after Tua Tagovailoa in April 2020 and both quarterbacks signed deals worth over $50 million per season this past summer. This is the first time they’ll face off as starting quarterbacks. The last and only time the Packers saw Tagovailoa, a dominant first half from the Dolphins quarterback turned after a head injury, and he threw three picks in the second half of a comeback Packers win on Christmas Day 2022. After missing four games with another head injury earlier this season, Tagovailoa returned and ignited the Dolphins offense — throwing eight touchdown passes and one interception over the last three games. Love will be making his first career start against an AFC East foe.
Freeze out the Dolphins?
Can the Packers make life miserable for their southern visitors in the cold of a late November Wisconsin night? The forecast for Green Bay calls for a windchill of around 15 degrees at kickoff and possibly some flurries late in the game, with the wind a likely factor throughout the contest. It will be cold. The high-octane Dolphins offense has struggled outdoors late in seasons in recent years, and it’s easy to imagine the difficulty of tackling Josh Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson — who both weigh 220 pounds — for four quarters in the cold. The Packers — who are 20-3 at home in Week 10 or later under Matt LaFleur — need to make sure the wind and cold are a big homefield advantage on Thanksgiving Night.
Young vs. old
Thursday night’s showdown will feature the NFL’s youngest team (Packers) against the NFL’s oldest team (Dolphins). Will the age difference matter at all on a short week? On one hand, the Dolphins have a legitimate experience advantage, which could help with the mental hurdles of a short week. But the Packers should have a recovery advantage, and they didn’t have to travel this week. It will be interesting to see how the many Dolphins veterans respond to a short week and playing in the cold — a tough combo for an older body. In theory, the young Packers should have fresher legs, possibly creating an advantage late in the game.
Who tackles better?
The better tackling team might end up being the winner on Thursday night. The Dolphins are coming into Week 13 with the third-worst tackling grade at PFF, and the Packers can challenge their ability to make tackles with dynamic ball-carriers such as Josh Jacobs, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft. But the Packers must also tackle consistently. The Dolphins run a quick strike passing game that relies on Tua Tagovailoa getting the ball out quick to playmakers. Running back De’Von Achane is dynamic. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have elite speed. Tight end Jonnu Smith is piling up yards after the catch. Can the Packers limit the damage? Tackling isn’t the most fun experience in the cold.
Quay’s encore
Packers linebacker Quay Walker is coming off what might be his best game as a pro. Can he build on the performance in a big matchup against the Dolphins? Miami’s offense is going to stress coverage in the middle of the field and force second-level defenders to cover a lot of space sideline-to-sideline. Walker must help muddy passing windows and also chase down the ball when the Dolphins try quick hitters outside or underneath. If Walker can fly around the field like he did last week, the Packers defense will have a chance to make life difficult on Miami’s offense.
Prediction: Packers 24, Dolphins 20 (6-5)
The Dolphins have a quarterback playing fast and efficient, a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in almost a month and veteran playmakers on both sides of the football. This will be a tough test for Matt LaFleur’s team, especially on a short week. The Packers should have some advantages built in pre-game — Green Bay is at home, recently had a bye week (providing time to prepare for the short week) and could get a boost from the forecast, which calls for cold and wind. Still, the Packers have to go out and play near their best to beat a Dolphins team gaining confidence. Can LaFleur’s team show the physical and mental toughness to play in the cold on a short week? The guess here is that the Packers run game provides the difference. The Dolphins have struggled to run the ball this season, while Josh Jacobs is really starting to heat up as a punishing tackle-breaker. He is the physical, tone-setting presence the Packers need in a game like this. Also, mark this down: Tucker Kraft — another tackle-breaking machine — will create a play or two with the ball in his hands that changes the game.
