With five straight losses and a playoff berth slipping further out of reach, the Green Bay Packers (3-6) desperately need to pull off an upset over the Dallas Cowboys (6-2) on Sunday. A win would spoil Mike McCarthy’s homecoming and help revive a season currently on life support.
However, it won’t be easy against a challenging opponent in Dallas, touting an offense with a talented two-headed backfield and one of the best defenses in the NFL. Meanwhile, Green Bay can’t seem to get out of its own way to get back in the win column.
This meeting between two storied franchises could come down to multiple key matchups, so here are four to keep an eye on.
Packers run defense vs Cowboys running backs
The Packers’ 26th-ranked run defense may not have one running back to deal with this week, but two. Ezekiel Elliot is still healing from a knee injury but is trending toward playing in Week 10. Elliot may be the Cowboys’ featured back, but Tony Pollard is a starter in his own right. Together, they have amassed 949 yards on the ground with nine rushing touchdowns to show for it. It’s safe to say Dallas will try to lean on their run game this week, considering their opponent, whose run defense is still an issue. Opposing teams are averaging 4.8 yards per carry and nearly 140 yards rushing per game against a Packers defense performing well below expectations. Green Bay’s best chance is to have a similar performance to last week when they held the Detroit Lions’ ninth overall rushing attack to 3.8 yards per carry and 117 yards.
Packers running backs vs Cowboys run defense
The Packers need a strong performance from their own run game if they hope to mitigate one of the best pass-rushing units in the league. Unfortunately, Aaron Jones exited last week’s loss to Detroit with an ankle injury, but there’s “potential” for him to play this week, according to Matt LaFleur. Even in a limited capacity, Green Bay would prefer to have its most skilled offensive player on the field.
This won’t be a game where the Packers can throw the ball 40 times and expect to win. In fact, the Cowboys are 4-0 this year against teams who attempt at least 35 passes. Not to mention, Dallas’ run defense hasn’t been much better than Green Bay’s in 2022. They are currently 24th overall in run defense while allowing 4.7 yards per carry. Whether it’s Jones or AJ Dillion getting most of the carries, the Packers will have to lean on their run game if they want to come out on top.
Packers offensive tackles vs Cowboys LB Micah Parsons
Now would be a good time for the Packers’ offensive line to be at full strength in preparation for one of the top pass rushers in the NFL today. According to Pro Football Focus, Parsons has the fifth most pressures in the league this season and is also fifth overall with 8.0 sacks. Parson doesn’t have a favorite side he likes to rush from, so either the left or right tackle will have to be ready. Luckily, Yosh Nijman has done a solid job since moving to the right side, seeing that he is first overall in ESPN’s pass block win rate at 95 percent. However, left tackle David Bakhtiari missed a good portion of last week’s game against the Lions when his knee flared up on the turf at Ford Field. Even though Bakhtiari appears to be on track to play, his status remains unpredictable. When healthy, Bakhtiari shows signs of his former self, but if he is unable to suit up or is sidelined during Sunday’s game, rookie Zach Tom will be his replacement. Even though Tom has done a nice job filling in at left tackle this season, expect Parsons to try and exploit that matchup.
Packers OLB Preston Smith vs Cowboys OT Tyler Smith
It’s the battle of the Smiths. The Packers will be without premier edge rusher Rashan Gary for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, which means the rest of the pass rush will need to elevate their game in his absence. Hopefully, Preston Smith can answer the bell. After a strong start to the season, his production has tailed off, with only three pressures over the last two games and zero sacks since Week 5. This could be the week Preston gets back on track going against a vulnerable left tackle in Tyler Smith. Dallas’ Smith has surrendered a team-high 16 pressures and four sacks this season in place of two-time All-Pro Tyron Smith.
