Games in Week 7 aren’t typically of the “must win” variety in Green Bay, but the Packers are 3-3 and in desperate need of a stabilizing victory against the Washington Commanders, a 2-4 football team preparing to start a backup quarterback on Sunday at FedEx Field.
Can the Packers break a two-game slide and get a suddenly wobbly season back in balance to start this stretch of three straight road games?
Here are five things to watch and a prediction:
The offensive line
Matt LaFleur rightfully pointed to the offensive line as the No. 1 issue during the loss to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers took four sacks and nine total hits in the defeat. Next up is a “nightmare” Washington front featuring three first-rounders. Is this the week the Packers will make personnel changes up front? Everything besides David Bakhtiari at left tackle and Josh Myers at center looks up for debate, including the position of Elgton Jenkins. After the Packers pulled Royce Newman during a disastrous performance last week, don’t be surprised if he’s the odd man out on Sunday in Washington. The Packers must open more run lanes on early downs and protect Rodgers better this week or the offense is going to continue to sputter. Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne will present a big challenge to that task.
Defensive dominance
Will this be the game where the Packers defense actually plays four consecutively strong quarters? Washington is 29th in points scored, 32nd in percent of drives ending in a score and 26th on third down, and the offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points in a game since Week 2. Carson Wentz took 23 sacks in the first six weeks. The run game for the Commanders doesn’t look threatening (24th in yards, 24th in yards per carry). Will backup Taylor Heinicke provide a spark? A truly dominant performance from Joe Barry’s defense would provide some much-needed wiggle room for Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur on the other side. Consistency is the thing to watch here.
Find No. 29?
Commanders cornerback Kendall Fuller has allowed 389 passing yards against his coverage this season, per PFF. The only corner to allow more? Bears rookie Kyler Gordon, who the Packers picked on relentlessly in the Week 2 win. Fuller can be beaten over the top, so maybe Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will finally get a shot play to hit this week. Like the Giants and Jets, expect Washington to play plenty of man coverage and challenge the Packers to make plays in the passing game. Getting Romeo Doubs and Allen Lazard matched up against Fuller could be the key to connecting down the field on Sunday.
Coverage responsibilities
It will be interesting to see how Joe Barry and the Packers defense align in coverage this week. Terry McLaurin is Washington’s top threat in the passing game, so he’ll likely draw the coverage of Jaire Alexander, who shadowed Garrett Wilson for much of last week. But in the slot, Curtis Samuel (who leads the team in catches) could create problems for Rasul Douglas. Washington has quick, twitchy receives they can throw inside to challenge the bigger, more physical Douglas. Also, keep an eye on the running backs. J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson have combined for 43 catches already this season.
Make people miss
Washington missed 15 tackles on defense last week against the Bears. Could this be an opportunity for Aaron Jones to create big plays and the receivers to produce yards after the catch? The Packers are in desperate need of “easy” offense, and there (should be?) nothing easier than getting the ball to Jones and utilizing the quick passing game to stress Washington to make plays in space. The Packers need to force these linebackers and cornerbacks to prove they can consistently make tackles.
Prediction: Packers 20, Commanders 10 (2-4)
A rough season of predicting games continues. This is the confidence-test game. Can the Packers go on the road, after two bad defeats, and beat a bad football team starting a backup quarterback? The offensive line needs to play considerably better against a talented front, but the Packers should dominate in most aspects on defense and there’s a lot to like about the individual matchups for the skill players on offense. The guess here is that the Packers offense hits a few explosive plays to set up scores but otherwise struggles, the defense plays its most consistent game of the year from start to finish and the special teams mostly get out of the way, clearing the path to an occasionally difficult but still comfortable win. Picking this team to win by 10 points is still a bold strategy, Cotton.
