No two teams in the NFC have won more games since 2020 than the Green Bay Packers (1-1) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0), who will face off in an early-season conference showdown on Sunday afternoon at Raymond James Stadium.
The Packers are 27-8 since 2020. The Buccaneers are a game behind at 26-9.
The Week 3 battle pits the Packers, fresh off a rebound win over the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field, against the unbeaten Buccaneers, who are back in Tampa Bay for the home opener after road wins over the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints during the first two weeks.
Here are five things to watch and a prediction for Sunday’s showdown at Raymond James Stadium.
Who is going to be catching passes?
Both future Hall of Fame quarterbacks might have to make do without top pass-catchers on Sunday, significantly complicating the task against two fast and tough defenses. The Buccaneers won’t have Pro Bowler Mike Evans, who is suspended for Week 3, and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones missed Week 2 and haven’t practiced so far this week. In Green Bay, Allen Lazard (ankle), Randall Cobb (illness), Sammy Watkins (hamstring) and Christian Watson (hamstring) all missed practice on Thursday. It’s possible Tom Brady will be throwing to the likes of Breshad Perriman, Russell Gage, Scotty Miller and Cole Beasley on Sunday, while Aaron Rodgers is looking for Romeo Doubs, Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree and Samori Toure. Which quarterback will make the most of it? Remember, the Bucs have 10 sacks and are allowing a passer rating of 54.6 to start 2022. The Packers gave up seven completions and 48 net passing yards in Week 2.
Playing on time
Regardless of who is in at receiver, playing on time in the passing game will be vital for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Holding the ball and trying to make off-schedule plays against the Bucs front just isn’t an option, and doing so will almost certainly lead to sacks and turnover plays. Receivers need to get open and Rodgers must play decisively as a distributor. It’ll probably be obvious early; if Rodgers is having to extend plays during the first few drives, the Packers offense could be in big trouble. This also doesn’t mean relying solely on the short and quick passing game, although the offense may have to be “methodical” at times. The Packers still need to press the Bucs down the field to keep the safeties from getting too aggressive playing downhill. It’s a delicate balance, but the Packers have to make it work to score points on Sunday.
Win the line of scrimmage on defense
Tom Brady has completed all of five passes under pressure this season. Even at 45 years old, he can still pick through coverages and find the right matchup if he’s given time in the pocket. The Packers need to speed him up and put him in tough spots. The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line and haven’t been consistent in pass protection this season, opening up an opportunity for the Packers defense to control the game at the line, especially if the Bucs are limited at receiver and struggle to get open. Kenny Clark, who already has 10 pressures in two games, should love the matchups awaiting him against the interior of the Bucs line. This has all the makings of a low-scoring, defense-dominated battle if the Green Bay front shows up in a big way.
Getting 33 going
In two games against the Bucs in 2020, Jones turned 23 total touches into only 75 yards, including only 42 rushing yards. How do the Packers get him going on Sunday? It’s hard to imagine a victory recipe without Jones creating explosive plays and keeping the offense in manageable situations, both as a runner and receiver. The Bucs, with a big, disruptive front and elite inside linebackers, provide a particularly difficult challenge to the Packers’ new “identity” on offense. Matt LaFleur needs to get creative in terms of getting Jones into space and utilizing A.J. Dillon to get the tough yards inside. With the receiver position hurting, Sunday could be an opportunity to get Jones and Dillon on the field even more together in the “Pony” package.
Protect the football
Over two meetings in 2020, the Bucs turned four Packers turnovers into four touchdowns and 28 points. This season, the Bucs rank tied for third in takeaways (6) and tied for fourth in drives ending in a turnover (25%). In what could be a defensive battle, protecting the ball on offense will be crucial for the visiting Packers. Nothing turns a low-scoring game in the wrong direction quite like a turnover and a short field for the opposition, especially on the road. The Packers already have three giveaways in two games, including two in Minnesota that helped break open that contest. Can Aaron Rodgers safeguard the ball under pressure and avoid a game-turning mistake? The Packers also need to be strong with the ball; this defense likes to “Peanut punch” at the ball in an attempt to cause fumbles. Green Bay’s chances of winning the game go up substantially if the offense puts a “0” in the turnover category on Sunday.
Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Packers 13 (1-1)
This is a tough one. The Bucs are dealing with key injuries, and so much about the NFL is not who you play, but when you play them. This is a decent time to play the Bucs, who are hurting at receiver and both the offensive and defensive lines. But it’s still hard to predict the Packers avoiding big mistakes and scoring enough points to beat the Bucs in the sun and heat of Tampa Bay on Sunday. The guess here is that the Packers defense plays exceedingly well and keeps Matt LaFleur’s team in the fight for all 60 minutes, but the Bucs will corral Aaron Jones and then produce a turnover here or there to get the winning edge. The Packers passing game is still developing and probably isn’t ready for the test ahead, and it’s so hard to win big games in the NFL without consistent timing, protection and finishing in the passing game.
