The Green Bay Packers are preparing to face one of the NFL’s most accurate and fastest throwing quarterbacks in Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins.
To watch Tagovailoa operate Mike McDaniels’ offense is to understand the unique challenge facing Jeff Hafley’s Packers defense on Thanksgiving Night.
Over the last three games, Tagovailia has completed 74.0 percent of his passes, averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and thrown eight touchdown passes and only one interception while averaging a depth of target under 6.0 yards and a time to throw under 2.5 seconds. He’s attempted only six passes thrown over 20 yards.
Arguably no quarterback has been more willing to throw short and throw quick than Tagovailoa — who missed four games with another concussion — over the last month. And it has been deadly effective — Tagovailoa is fourth in passing yards, tied for first in touchdown passes and tied for first in passing first downs over the last three games.
As Matt LaFleur said this week, Tagovailoa mixes elite accuracy and elite anticipation as a thrower, making him hard to defend in a clever passing scheme designed by McDaniel and heavily influenced by the Shanahan coaching tree.
Not surprisingly, the Dolphins are piling up yards after the catch. Veteran tight end Jonnu Smith actually ranks second among all players in yards after the catch between Week 10-12 with 155. Running back De’Von Achane is seventh among running backs with 103. Receiver Jaylen Waddle, who is 10th among all players in receiving yards over the last three games, has 238 receiving yards and 76 after the catch.
LaFleur warned about Tagovailia hitting his skill position players — among the fastest in football — in stride and opening up explosive play opportunities. Throwing with accuracy and anticipation often opens up these chances for big plays. And throwing quick can negate the pass-rush.
The Packers have sometimes struggled defending the quick and short passing game. The most obvious example is two weeks ago in Chicago when rookie Caleb Williams completed 23 of 31 passes — with an average depth of target around 7.0 yards — in an efficient, effective performance against Hafley’s defense.
According to Next Gen Stats, Tagovailoa has attempted passes behind the line of scrimmage on an NFL-high 30.6 percent of his passes this season. The Packers must be ready to play downhill and rally to the ball when the Dolphins get the ball to playmakers in the flats.
The speed of Waddle and Tyreek Hill conjure nightmares of the deep passing game. But consider this: Hill, the game’s ultimate speedster, has an average depth of target of 7.3 yards over the last three games.
The Packers can’t let the Dolphins steal a big play or two deep, but it’s clear the goal of this passing game is to let Tagovailoa distribute fast and let the playmakers do the rest. With Waddle, Hill, Smith and Achane leading the way, it’s not a terrible strategy — especially for a quarterback with Tagovailoa’s skill set and injury history.
Tagovailoa is feasting on the short, quick passing game. Can the Packers stuff it on Thanksgiving Night?
