If this Buffalo Bills team were taking on a typical Aaron Rodgers-led Packers unit, we would all be anticipating a high-scoring shootout on Sunday night.
However, that isn’t the case this season with the Green Bay offense. Instead, if the Packers are going to pull off the upset, it begins with a consistent – and successful, ideally – rushing attack.
To put it simply, the Packers just don’t have the personnel to keep up with Josh Allen and a Bills offense that is second in points per game and first in passing yards – especially with Allen Lazard not expected to play. So time of possession and controlling the clock is going to be crucial.
Last week against Washington, the Packers failed to convert a third down and ran the ball just 12 times, despite the game being relatively close for four quarters. This resulted in the Commanders holding the ball for 15 more minutes and running 25 more plays, and if it happens again, it is a recipe for a blowout loss.
Now, this isn’t to say that more carries are going to guarantee that this doesn’t happen, as this is a Bills defense that is allowing only 3.5 yards per rush, the fewest in the NFL, but even a pair of rushes that average three-yards – which is what Green Bay averaged against Washington – puts them in a manageable third and four situation. This isn’t exactly a pretty approach, but neither is the Packers’ passing game right now.
A consistent ground game can also benefit the rest of the offense. It provides the offensive line the opportunity to be the aggressor rather than being passive and retreating in pass protection. It can set up play-action, where Aaron Rodgers has completed 65% of his passes at 7.2 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, and it can provide Matt LaFleur flexibility as a play-caller by hopefully opening up the passing game.
Washington ran a ton of Cover-2 against the Packers and played with light boxes, which made moving the ball through the air challenging. The run game could have been a great way to get Washington out of this look that they sat in for essentially the entire game.
And let’s not forget, the Packers also have Aaron Jones, who doesn’t exactly need perfect blocking in order to be effective with the ball in his hands. Despite up-and-down offensive line play this season, Jones is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and is fourth in missed tackles forced and tied for seventh in runs of 10-plus yards, according to PFF. Green Bay will hopefully have Christian Watson back on the field as well, who has helped create running lanes for the backs when utilized as the motion man with the attention that he draws.
On the flip side, we’ve seen how quickly things can turn when Green Bay abandons the run and relies too heavily on the passing game. The defensive front – which for Buffalo ranks sixth in pressures this season – is able to pin its ears back, get after Rodgers, and disrupt the entire offense. And that’s not just this season; there are examples of this when Davante Adams was in Green Bay, the offensive line play was better, and the Packers’ offense was one of the best in the NFL. The offense just hasn’t been able to execute at a high enough level this season with their personnel to win this way.
With all of that said, leaning on the run game doesn’t mean the Packers should try to bully their way through the A-gap on every play, either. They have an athletic offensive line and a terrific playmaker in Jones; get this group on the move and in space.
Of course, the hope is that when running the ball, Green Bay averages five yards per rush. However, the effects of the run game can still be felt even when things aren’t going that smoothly, but it requires consistency and the defense believing that the Packers are willing to run the ball in a given situation. It’s difficult to see Green Bay having a path to victory without consistency on the ground.
