The Green Bay Packers went from a 4-8 record in the beginning of December to 8-8 and in control of their own destiny. If they can win their last game of the season against the Detroit Lions, they are onto the playoffs!
There are several factors that go into the Packers recent success: and no, it’s not Aaron Rodgers’ haircut.
On the offensive side of the ball, they have been handing it off more to their pair of tanks in the backfield, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillion. But the biggest impact for the Packers has been on the defensive side of the ball.
Up until the Packers’ Week 14 bye, the defense had just 10 interceptions with six dropped interceptions. But over the last three weeks alone, they have seven interceptions with only one drop. From weeks 10-13, they went from a defensive DVOA of 17.2% which was 29th in the league. Since Week 15, they have the third-highest defensive DVOA at -24.2%..
There are several reasons for the sudden uptick in production from the Packers’ secondary. So let’s dive into the film to see where it began and what changes they’ve made over the last few weeks!
Dialing it back.
When looking at the Packers’ defense, there are several areas of improvement.
They went from the 23rd ranked rush defense (3.9%) to dead last (21.33%) between weeks 10-13, to now, up to 12th ranked defense in the league with -15.8% over the last three weeks. (per Football Outsiders)
The pass defense has gotten even better. They were ranked 18th with a 12.3% defensive DVOA between weeks 10-1, up to 4th best with a -32.4% DVOA over the last three weeks.
One of the key areas the Packers decided to dial it back was the blitz and a heavy pass rush. According to Sports Info Solutions, during the first 13 weeks of the season, the Packers brought 5+ pass rushers the third-most often in the league, 150 snaps. Weeks 15-17 they only brought 5+ pass rushers six times, the NFL’s lowest rate.
The Packers defense went from the 2nd highest blitz rate in the NFL before their bye
… to the LOWEST blitz rate in the NFL after the bye.
From 42% down to 10%.
— Daire Carragher (@DaireCarragher) January 3, 2023
When head coach Matt LaFleur was recently asked about his team’s defensive success, here is what he had to say: “It always starts with us as coaches, and we got to make sure our guys are all on the same page and if were not, then we have to look and see how much we are giving them and what we have to dial back…. It’s all complimentary though, the rush has a lot to do with it as well. If the QB has to get the ball out quicker, then you can challenge a little bit more play flat footed or whatever it is if you know the ball is about to come out.”
When LaFleur says that the defense is complementary, it works both ways.
When you send a blitzer, the quarterback can usually find the hole in the defense pretty quick. That is especially the case against teams that specialize in run-pass-options. That’s what happened in week 12 versus the Chicago Bears and Justin Fields.
Fields kept his head up, read the defense and was able to outrun the secondary because of the uneven number of defenders to the blitzer’s side.
Now the Packers drop more defenders into the secondary while jamming the receivers at the line of scrimmage. This forces the quarterback to have to wait until his guys are open downfield before he can get rid of it, in turn, giving more time for the defensive line to get home.
This is what LaFleur means when he says both positional groups are complementary to each other.
Secondary adjustments.
Second-year defensive coordinator Joe Barry knew that changes needed to be made after cornerback Eric Stokes and pass rusher Rashan Gary both got injured. The Packers took the aggressiveness from the pass rush and put that responsibility on the secondary.
When LaFleur was asked about the production and aggressiveness from the defensive backs: “I really think the communication and just being on the same page results in less coverage busts…. We have been contesting a lot more balls, I love how, just those guys, the mindset, you saw it the other day Rasul knocks a ball away and Savage picks it off and takes it to the house,. Jaire has been obviously very aggressive; I really think all of those guys are just challenging more in the back end.”
For the first 13 weeks of the season, per SIS, the Packers were allowing a 59.3% completion percentage in passes of 15+ air yards, which was 31st in the league. Over the last three weeks, it’s dropped to 52.6% which is fifth-best.
Part of the reason for this, in addition to blitzing less, is how their secondary has dropped back into coverage.
The Packers have now focused on using two-high safeties as opposed to only one defender over the top. This prevents deeper shots downfield.
They are using these two-high safeties in a few different ways: Cover 2 (man under), which is just how it sounds, everyone underneath the two safeties are in man coverage.
The Packers have also been using a lot of Cover-6. This is where one safety will cover half of the field and other safety has a quarter of the field, and the cornerback on the single side receiver will cover the other quarter of the field deep.
In Cover-6, the cornerback on the weakside is usually in man coverage. The extra safety deep to that side is there in case that single-side receiver cuts inside. The safety won’t have to follow and create a hole in the secondary. This prevents busted coverages.
Here is an example of that from the Week 16 game against the Miami Dolphins.
With cornerback Rasul Douglas in man coverage against Tyreek Hill. The second cornerback Darnell Savage can come help over the top while Adrian Amos picks up Jaylen Waddle running a deep over.
This was a completed pass underneath, which is the only weak spot when running this defense. There will always be a part of the field exposed. But this defense is an easy way to keep all the receivers in front of you.
The right switches, at the right time.
According to Daire Carragher of the Packer Report/247 Sports, the Packers were using Cover-2 in less than 4% of their total snaps. Over the last three games, that jumped to 17.6%.
From weeks 10-13, per Sports Info Solutions, the Packers ran the second-most Cover-0/1/3 (81 snaps), and that number dropped to only 20 attempts from weeks 15-17, which is the least in the league.
Essentially, the Packers’ defense went from a blitz heavy cover 1/3 scheme to a conservative pass rush who sits in cover 2/6. This change has allowed the turnover rate to jump, pressures, sacks, and overall production to improve.
Justin Jefferson went from nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, to only one catch for 15 yards in last week’s matchup.
The Packers’ defense has all the momentum heading into Week 18. If they can continue to be aggressive at the catch point, they should have no problem shutting down Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions, and making their way into the playoffs.
