The Green Bay Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot in the NFC, but Matt LaFleur’s team is going to need plenty of help overcoming the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.
The playoff simulator at The New York Times tells the story.
For starters, the Packers currently have a 99 percent chance of making the postseason. They are 9-3 and have a three-game lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams for a wildcard spot, and Green Bay holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over both the Cardinals and Rams. Even if, let’s say, the Packers were to lose their final five games, the NYT simulator gives Green Bay a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs. Even a 1-4 finish gives the Packers an 80 percent chance. So things are looking very good on the postseason front.
In the NFC North? Not so good.
Even if the Packers win out and finish 14-3 (with wins over the Lions and Vikings), the NYT simulator gives Green Bay a 35-40 percent chance of winning the division — an incredible testament to the quality of the division and the challenge facing the Packers to win the NFC North.
Not only would the Packers need to win out, but Green Bay would need the Lions to lose two more games. The Vikings don’t factor into the equation as long as the Packers win out. The Lions’ schedule isn’t necessary easy over the final five, so it’s possible. But any run to the division title for the Packers has to start Thursday night at Ford Field.
Final 5 games for GB, DET
Packers: at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears
Lions: vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings
Currently, the Packers have a three percent chance of winning the division and a 96 percent chance of being a wildcard team. If the Packers don’t win the NFC North, they’ll have to go on the road to play a division winner — most likely the champion of the NFC West or NFC South — in the first round of the postseason.
