Pacific leaders are being urged to front up to the topic of shipping emissions at the leaders summit in Fiji today after submissions for the most ambitious decarbonisation targets yet are publicly released
How to achieve full decarbonisation of the world’s shipping fleet by 2050 is just months away from being decided.
"It’s going to be a watershed moment, it's make or break, it’s shipping’s Paris Agreement,” said Dr Peter Nuttall, the scientific and technical advisor for the Micronesian Center for Sustainable Transport, an entity set up by Marshall Islands in 2015 to address the need for Pacific states to transition to low carbon transport.
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“Either they choose to come hard on 1.5 degrees, or basically lose the opportunity to ever meet a 1.5 target.”
Next month a working group within the International Maritime Organisation will meet to discuss submissions from member states – including the most ambitious ones on the table spear-headed by Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands and Fiji.
Nuttall's centre’s work underpins the submissions.
“We've looked at the science, we've talked to the best scientists and we've come up with, 'we need full decarbonisation by 2050 but we need the bulk of that work done by 2040'.
“So the speed at which we need to react is far greater than anything we've planned for earlier.”
“It's something that should be on the agenda. It's something that we've tried to discuss within the regional architecture now for a number of years.” - Dr Peter Nuttall.
Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni is attending the Pacific Islands Forum leaders summit today in Fiji. However, the topic isn't expected to be discussed.
Nuttall said the forum would be the perfect place to discuss the submissions but in his experience commercial elements made this topic difficult.
“It's something that should be on the agenda. It's something that we've tried to discuss within the regional architecture now for a number of years.
“What you have to understand is that there is a commercial element to the IMO negotiations where a number of Pacific Island countries also host what's called open registries or flags of convenience, and so this complicates any attempt to try and build a regional position and it's largely the point why our regional position hasn't coagulated previously in the space.”
He said a regional position would possibly result in a less ambitious set of submissions as well.
Another contentious issue up for negotiation is how to make shipping companies pay for their emissions.
“It's generally agreed now at IMO that we need to have a market-based measure that needs to be in the revised strategy. And it comes down to a choice between an emission trading scheme or a levy.
“For a whole host of reasons a levy is simply the most efficient, effective measure to take. It will be the cheapest, easiest to put into place and have the greatest result.”
A joint proposal for a universal levy starting at $100 a tonne of CO2 equivalent – ratcheting up quickly over the next five years and then ten years up to whatever the real market differential is – has been submitted.
“Rising to probably around $350 to $400 a tonne – that's the most ambitious marketplace measure on the table.”
“The Pacific will always pay the highest price if it isn’t proactive. This time, thanks to the continual leadership of the Marshalls and Solomons, it is on the front foot.” - Dr Peter Nuttall.
Nuttall said that figure would generate enough revenue to allow for an equitable transition away from carbon.
“So a big part of the debate that happens in March in London is what are the options, what money should go to mitigation, what money should go to adaptation and who is going to manage all this money?
“We're talking a large amount of money, our proposal is valued at $80 billion a year initial revenue.”
Initial debate on the submissions begins at a forum in London next month, followed by months of bilateral negotiations between member states.
Endorsement of the revised strategy for the IMO will happen in July.
“The science and the economics are clear, the transition requires a paradigm shift, but it is technically possible and achievable – if we go hard now,” Nuttall said.
"Delaying will always cost more. The Pacific will always pay the highest price if it isn’t proactive. This time, thanks to the continual leadership of the Marshalls and Solomons, it is on the front foot.”
