The second Elizabethan age has delivered a remarkable increase in living standards. Average incomes in 2022 — adjusted for the effects of inflation — are almost four times higher than they were when the 25-year-old Elizabeth became our sovereign in 1952. I doubt we will see quite the same gains over the next 70 years but, nevertheless, I’m optimistic there won’t be a repeat of the first Elizabethan age (from 1558 to 1603), during which there was no increase in living standards whatsoever. Indeed, we may be on the cusp of radical innovations in energy, artificial intelligence and medicine.
Over the past seven decades, we’ve come a long way. In 1952, remnants of Second World War rationing were still in place. Only 35 per cent of women were economically active in the sense that they were either in, or looking for paid work (those not in paid work were typically burdened with unpaid domestic chores). Today, more than 70 per cent of women are economically active. Fewer than four per cent of pupils leaving school went to university. Today, more than 50 per cent do so. Males born in England and Wales in 1951 would live, on average, 66 years. Male babies born today may reach the age of 80.
Regional disparities still exist — those born in Kensington and Chelsea will typically live longer than those born in Blackpool — but even those coming from the poorest parts of the UK will still live longer than their grandparents.
What’s changed? Sanitation has improved dramatically. Outside lavatories aren’t terribly common nowadays. Vaccinations and antibiotics have dramatically reduced the risk of infant mortality. “Sin taxes” have reduced premature deaths caused by tobacco, as has the ban on smoking in public places. Technological advances have vastly raised productivity.
Yet, even as we marvel at this second Elizabethan age, it has not been without its problems. Climate change wasn’t given much thought in 1952. The Cold War ended but, as I write, geopolitical relations have become decidedly chilly once more. As for the British economy, it has rather lost its mojo. In the first five decades of the second Elizabethan age, per capita incomes rose at a 2.4 per cent annual rate. Over the past 20 years, they’ve risen at a paltry 0.8 per cent annual rate. Put another way, whereas living standards were doubling every 30 years, they are now on track to double every 90 years.
This slower rate of progress has contributed to a heightened sense of unease. Politicians became very good at promising us a bountiful future for the simple reason that a dynamic economy mostly delivered that future. Today, such promises lack credibility. Instead, tough choices have to be made: caring for the elderly while introducing student fees; funding the NHS yet not fully supporting a clean energy transition; reinvigorating our military in an increasingly hostile world, but not building enough social housing.
What of the future? Internationally, China and the US will have to find ways to accommodate each other. The gap between rich and poor nations is likely to trigger further waves of migration. Climate risk won’t dissipate immediately, particularly given that so many countries hope to “catch up” with western levels of economic activity. And — who knows? — maybe the United Kingdom will be smaller than it is today.
Still, there is always hope. In 70 years’ time, we might genuinely have secured that elusive clean energy transition. Imagine a world in which our energy needs are mostly met by renewables, both clean and remarkably cheap (unless, of course, the tax man plays his part). Advances in robotics and AI might lead to the end of dull and monotonous jobs in all manner of services (Ubers and Amazon deliveries will probably be entirely autonomous by then). We will increasingly be entertained by versions of augmented virtual reality (Abba’s current “performances” are surely only the beginning of what is likely to be a revolution in how we experience the world). And medical advances may reduce the incidence of dementia among the elderly.Progress is not guaranteed.
But for all our near-term anxieties — climate, Ukraine, inflation — my guess is that our children and grandchildren will live better lives than we have enjoyed, even if their living standards don’t improve quite as quickly as ours have during Her Majesty’s remarkably long reign.
