Last Wednesday, Republicans secured enough seats to confirm they will hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives for the 118th Congress. Although the final margin awaits the final count in a handful of districts, it will be a single-digit total in the 435-member chamber, not the red wave result they had been banking on.
On Thursday, its incoming leadership team held a press conference to outline its priorities. You might imagine it had heeded the concerns of voters, after election liars and extremist candidates were repudiated across the country. And you could be forgiven for expecting it to unveil proposals to tackle inflation, petrol prices, crime, drugs, the border and immigration dysfunction — key parts of its campaign.
You would be wrong. Republicans don’t do policy. Americans are still waiting on their healthcare alternatives to Obamacare a dozen years later. Any day now.
Instead Republican lawmakers announced plans to launch a slew of investigations into Hunter Biden, the alleged persecution of the January 6 insurrectionists (but definitely not their violent attack on the US Capitol), support for Ukraine in its war to repel Russia’s invasion, Nancy Pelosi, China and the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
That last one should be a doozy, given it was Donald Trump’s administration that signed the peace deal with the Taliban in 2020, released thousands of Taliban prisoners, and withdrew all but 3500 US troops from the country before leaving office.
Republicans have also vowed to impeach President Joe Biden, Vice-President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Attorney-General Merrick Garland, and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
On Friday, they sent letters to 42 White House and administration officials demanding testimony on border security, school board threats, and claims of bias within the FBI and the Department of Justice. “We expect your unfettered cooperation in arranging for the committee to receive testimony,” wrote incoming House Judiciary Committee chair Jim Jordan.
After doing all they could to undermine House oversight activities during the past four years, their chutzpah is matched only by their arrogance.
This is Benghazi on steroids. For those in the bleachers, “Benghazi” refers to a terrorist attack on the US diplomatic mission in that Libyan town on September 11 2012. Four US personnel died, including ambassador J Christopher Stevens. In the years that followed, House Republicans conducted six separate committee investigations that found no evidence of wrongdoing by any Obama administration officials.
Despite this, they kept hammering their blame game. Then House majority leader Kevin McCarthy let the cat out of the bag when he confessed to Sean Hannity on Fox News: “Everybody thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers are dropping.”
McCarthy’s on-air admission cost him the speakership in the subsequent Congress, which fell to Paul Ryan. Seven years later McCarthy stands on the brink of fulfilling his lifelong ambition. And he hasn’t changed one iota. If anything, he will be even more prone to political games due to the GOP’s wafer-thin majority. He will be captive to the fringe fanatics’ bidding, and will do as they demand to retain their support.
John Boehner, his predecessor from 2011 to 2015, found himself hostage to the extremists of the far right Freedom Caucus when he wielded the gavel, and that was despite commanding majorities exceeding 30 seats throughout his tenure. Boehner called them anarchists: “They can’t tell you what they’re for. They can tell you everything they’re against … They want total chaos. Tear it all down and start over. That’s what their mindset is.”
Now they’re back and ready for battle. Far from toning down their antics, bombastic blowhards like Jordan and QAnon conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene have been ramping up their rhetoric. Greene and her colleague Paul Gosar were stripped of their House committee memberships for promoting violence against Democrats.
Rather than denouncing their conduct, McCarthy pledged to retaliate when Republicans regained power. Now he has followed through on his threat, declaring he will deny committee assignments to Representatives Adam Schiff, Eric Swalwell, and Ilhan Omar in the next Congress. This is naked political retribution, an opening salvo of the next two years of nonstop negativity.
What will this mean for the Biden administration and the United States? The short answer is more conflict and political gridlock. The longer answer is that it will hurt the Republicans more than the Democrats. Voters signalled in the midterms that they are tired of the culture wars and conflict. They want government to offer practical solutions that will help improve their lives. Republicans refuse to accept this. Instead they have decided belatedly that Donald Trump is their problem and all they have to do to win again is jettison him. As if he’s about to let that happen. After lashing themselves to him for the past six years, their fates are intertwined.
Meanwhile, with their control of the Senate intact, Democrats will continue confirming federal judges at a record rate. They will conduct orderly oversight and pass legislation supported by the mainstream American majority. These bills will be dead on arrival in the House, but that will only highlight the distinctions between the parties in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election. Democrats will present as the party of governance. Republicans will strut as the party of grievance.
As supply chains unravel and interest rate rises bite, inflation will subside. Corporations have already grabbed their price gains amid the confusion, limiting additional profiteering ahead.
While Congress stalls, the massive infrastructure, technology and climate investments legislated during the past two years will begin to roll out. These projects will offer plenty of ribbon-cutting opportunities for Democrats.
Everything now is about the 2024 contest. Biden looks all but certain to run again and Trump has said he will run too. For all the talk of potential rivals for the GOP nomination, none has put their hand up. Republicans are lining up a rerun of their 2016 playbook. The sequel is unlikely to match the original.
