LOS ANGELES — We're a week away from the beginning of Oscar nominations voting. Motion picture academy members presumably spent the holidays unwrapping tamales, spiking the eggnog and catching up on the movies they've missed. (Or, from what I'm hearing, watching the ones they love once again instead of doing their homework.)
What might this year's slate look like when Oscar nods are announced Jan. 24? Here's what's settled ... and what's still up for grabs.
Best picture
Sure things:
"The Fabelmans"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"Top Gun: Maverick"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Elvis"
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"Tár"
Vying for the remaining three spots:
"Women Talking"
"Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
"The Woman King"
"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
"RRR"
"Triangle of Sadness"
"Babylon"
It's easy to look ahead and envision Oscar pundits' heads exploding when "Top Gun: Maverick" wins the Producers Guild honor, "Everything Everywhere All at Once" takes the Screen Actors Guild Awards' ensemble prize and Steven Spielberg is feted by the Directors Guild for "The Fabelmans." Chaos! Who will win best picture??? ("The Banshees of Inisherin," of course.)
How voters fill out the back end of their ballots is anyone's guess. The strong showing for Edward Berger's grisly adaptation of "All Quiet on the Western Front" in the Oscar shortlists turned some heads. (Makeup and hairstyling? Well, there is a lot of grime on the soldiers' faces.) It's certainly blunt enough in its antiwar messaging, adding some unnecessary plotting to Erich Maria Remarque's perfect novel. But in a year when maximalist movies are in fashion, maybe that kind of narrative pummeling puts it over the top. In that vein, there are even lesser options — ahem, "Babylon" — available.
Director
Sure things:
Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"
James Cameron, "Avatar: The Way of Water"
Vying for the remaining three spots:
Daniels, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Todd Field, "Tár"
Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Sarah Polley, "Women Talking"
Baz Luhrmann, "Elvis"
Gina Prince-Bythewood, "The Woman King"
Ruben Östlund, "Triangle of Sadness"
Women have won this Oscar the last two years, and early festival reviews for Polley's intimate, thrilling drama "Women Talking" had her as a favorite to land a nomination. She still might. But the woman everyone could end up talking about when nominations are announced is Prince-Bythewood, who staged staggering battle sequences in "The Woman King" that remained grounded by the emotional connections among the film's vast array of characters. She'd be the first Black woman ever nominated in this category.
Actress
Sure things:
Cate Blanchett, "Tár"
Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"
Vying for the remaining two spots:
Viola Davis, "The Woman King"
Danielle Deadwyler, "Till"
Margot Robbie, "Babylon"
Olivia Colman, "Empire of Light"
Ana de Armas, "Blonde"
As I wrote out of Telluride, it's a great year for movies driven by women, which makes it feel weird to be convinced that Blanchett, Yeoh, Williams, Davis and Deadwyler are going to be the five to land nominations. The go-for-broke turns from Robbie and De Armas will win some votes, but between the bad reviews and the inflated running times, not enough people are bothering with their films. The bittersweet nostalgia in "Empire of Light" is more inviting — at least, at first. But the movie isn't quite sure what it wants to be, though that scattershot approach doesn't negate Colman's vivid acting. Glenn Close would be the first to tell you: Underestimate Colman at your peril.
Actor
Sure things:
Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Austin Butler, "Elvis"
Bill Nighy, "Living"
Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"
Vying for the remaining one spot:
Hugh Jackman, "The Son"
Tom Cruise, "Top Gun: Maverick"
Paul Mescal, "Aftersun"
Jeremy Pope, "The Inspection"
Tom Hanks, "A Man Called Otto"
In a big swings prediction piece I wrote a couple months back, I mused about the possibility of Cruise earning a lead actor nomination for his singular ability to take a 30-some-odd-year break between high-flying blockbuster action movies and still convincingly play an irresistible, arrogant fighter pilot capable of saving the world and not have audiences rolling their eyes.
But now that people are jumping on the Cruise bandwagon, I'm hearing from more actors branch voters who just aren't feeling it. So if not Cruise, who gets that fifth spot? I'm leaning toward Mescal for his soulful turn in a movie that leaves people emotionally devastated. (That's good!) Then again, I attended a late-season academy screening of "A Man Called Otto," and Hanks won a huge ovation for making like a modern-day Scrooge. Enough to summon the ghosts of Oscars past? It'll be an uphill climb.
Supporting actress
Sure things:
Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Vying for the two remaining spots:
Jessie Buckley, "Women Talking"
Dolly De Leon, "Triangle of Sadness"
Claire Foy, "Women Talking"
Hong Chau, "The Whale"
Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Janelle Monáe, "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
Carey Mulligan, "She Said"
Nina Hoss, "Tár"
As you can see from this grouping, this is a complicated category with a lotta ins, a lotta outs, a lotta what have yous. Admittedly, I'm biased, but I think the Los Angeles Film Critics Association boosted De Leon's profile. "Triangle" has been pretty widely seen by voters and mostly enjoyed, if only for De Leon's commanding third-act performance. In the end, I can see the race shaping up as a battle between Bassett and Curtis, two legends long overdue for their Oscar moment.
Supporting actor
Sure things:
Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Vying for the remaining three spots:
Barry Keoghan, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Paul Dano, "The Fabelmans"
Judd Hirsch, "The Fabelmans"
Ben Whishaw, "Women Talking"
Brad Pitt, "Babylon"
Brian Tyree Henry, "Causeway"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Good Nurse"
When I saw "The Fabelmans" at its AFI Fest premiere, the audience cheered at the end of Hirsch's bravura scene. "Family, art, life — it will tear you in two!" He got an amen or three for that line. Dano, meanwhile, grounds the movie, which wouldn't work without him. Gleeson slings and slays in "Banshees." Whishaw holds his own as the sole male member of the "Women Talking" ensemble. Redmayne plays a creep; Henry, a yearner; Keoghan, a simpleton. And the Oscar will likely go to Quan, who plays several iterations of his "Everything" character, each one brilliant and true.
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