With a terrible inevitability, this is set to be the Enheimer Oscars. The Barb half has faded almost entirely from the conversation, and now even the scandal of its snubs seems to be a non-talking point. Seriousness and maleness and nuclear bombs make for plausible Oscar prizes, it seems, not female-centred comedy. Greta Gerwig’s monumental box office achievement with her sprightly, spectacular Barbie was the talk of the town last summer as part of the #Barbenheimer double-header. It launched a zillion op-ed pieces about whether Margot Robbie’s witty blond heroine was feminism’s hero or villain (a puzzle that the film didn’t entirely solve) and sold a zillion tickets, thus solving – or anyway deferring – the cinema industry’s pressing financial problems.
But, right or wrong, the Academy has pretty much turned its nose up at the zany DayGlo surreality of Barbie. Perhaps the horror of the daily news has soured everyone’s appetite for comedy. Oppenheimer, with its massive, complex, tragic story of J Robert Oppenheimer, is all set to capture the zeitgeist.
Or is it? According to Hollywood Reporter columnist Scott Feinberg and his mischievous anonymous survey the Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot, Jonathan Glazer’s lethally powerful Holocaust movie The Zone of Interest is all set to pull off a huge upset and win best picture. If that happens, it would be a magnificent victory for a great auteur, and how remarkable to see these two outstanding British film-makers, Glazer and Christopher Nolan, at the Hollywood apex. Quite apart from its obvious qualities, The Zone of Interest could be gaining traction because of the light it (arguably) sheds on the Middle East and western liberal reactions. Now, these comparisons have the potential to be crass and offensive, to say the very least, but Zone of Interest producer James Wilson has offered complex, nuanced thoughts on the subject and he may yet have the opportunity to do so again on Sunday night.
Elsewhere, Alexander Payne’s comedy The Holdovers has been quietly winning hearts and minds with its likable, sympathetic and humane study of loneliness, boasting wonderful performances from Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Paul Giamatti and newcomer Dominic Sessa. This film has been getting talked about by Oscar voters and is very approachable. And yet the bigger winner could be Yorgos Lanthimos’s fiercely scabrous Poor Things, with its startling and brilliant performance from Emma Stone as the Victorian woman brought back from the dead in a bizarre Frankensteinian experiment. But even here there are chances for outsiders to come up on the rails. Maybe Bradley Cooper will jink through with his studied (and fascinating) portrayal of Leonard Bernstein, and Annette Bening could pull off a feelgood underdog triumph with her performance as the endurance swimmer Diana Nyad. It could all happen – but I think this will be Christopher Nolan’s night.
Best picture
Will win: Oppenheimer
Should win: Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: The Eight Mountains
Best director
Will win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Should win: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Shoulda been a contender: Robin Campillo, Red Island
Best actor
Will win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
Should win: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
Shoulda been a contender: Joaquin Phoenix for Napoleon
Best actress
Will win: Emma Stone for Poor Things
Should win: Emma Stone for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: Sydney Sweeney for Reality
Best supporting actor
Will win: Robert Downey Jr for Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling for Barbie
Shoulda been a contender: John Magaro for Past Lives
Best supporting actress
Will win: Da’vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Should win: Da’vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers
Shoulda been a contender: Sandra Hüller for The Zone of Interest
Best animated feature
Will win: The Boy and the Heron
Should win: The Boy and the Heron
Shoulda been a contender: Orion and the Dark
Best adapted screenplay
Will win: Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Should win: Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
Shoulda been a contender: Tina Satter for Reality
Best original screenplay
Will win: Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall
Should win: Celine Song for Past Lives
Shoulda been a contender: Robin Campillo, Gilles Marchand and Jean-Luc Raharimanana for Red Island
Best documentary
Will win: Mstyslav Chernov for 20 Days in Mariupol
Should win: Mstyslav Chernov for 20 Days in Mariupol
Shoulda been a contender: Steve McQueen for Occupied City
Best international feature film
Will win: The Zone of Interest
Should win: The Zone of Interest
Shoulda been a contender: Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell
Best production design
Will win: Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer for Barbie
Should win: Shona Heath and James Price for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: Chris Oddy for The Zone of Interest
Best cinematography
Will win: Hoyte van Hoytema for Oppenheimer
Should win: Robbie Ryan for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: Łukasz Żal for The Zone of Interest
Best makeup and hairstyling
Will win: Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell for Maestro
Should win: Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: Ivana Primorac for Barbie
Best costume design
Will win: Jacqueline Durran for Barbie
Should win: Holly Waddington for Poor Things
Shoulda been a contender: Lindy Hemming for Wonka
Best editing
Will win: Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer
Should win: Thelma Schoonmaker for Killers of the Flower Moon
Shoulda been a contender: Paul Watts for The Zone of Interest
The Oscars will take place on Sunday, 10 March
