Australia could soon be importing gas for its own use and may need to extend the life of the nation's largest coal-fired power plant further, Origin Energy has warned.
Origin, one of the largest suppliers to the east coast domestic gas market, on Thursday reported a net profit of $1.4 billion for the year to June 30, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier.
But Origin shares fell 10 per cent or $1.05 cents to $9.55 in afternoon trade on an earnings downgrade for the year ahead, on shrinkage in the company's two-year windfall from steep tariffs and larger power bills.
A deal is in place with the NSW government to keep the Eraring power plant open until 2027, and analysts quizzed Origin about potentially keeping it running until April 2029, given it covers a quarter of the state's power.
Volatile markets mean Eraring could run "for as long as it is needed" and "at least" until August 2027, with that closure date to be reviewed in coming years, chief executive Frank Calabria told the investor webcast.
"It would require us to be assessing the market, and also the government as well," he said.
Despite being one of the world's largest LNG exporters, Australia could soon be importing gas to meet its own needs.
Pipeline constraints mean not enough Queensland gas can get to NSW, Victoria and South Australia, Mr Calabria warned, with the industry eyeing import terminals at Port Kembla, Geelong and Port Adelaide.
"We'll need more supply into the market, particularly to supply those southern states ... we certainly feel that LNG imports are going to play a major role," he said.
Origin also forecast higher electricity demand on electrification, uptake of electric vehicles and the rise of data centres.
Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation - a measure of core company profitability - rose to $3.528 billion, from $3.107 billion.
The underlying profit increased to $1.183 billion, $436 million higher than the prior year, on higher earnings in the Energy Markets and Integrated Gas divisions.
Origin's virtual power plant Loop expanded by 70 per cent to 1.4 gigawatts, under a plan to grow connected business and household solar and other energy equipment to 2GW by 2026.
Mr Calabria said the balance sheet remains strong, with good cash generation supporting higher dividends and investments in big batteries, wind and solar.
But data demanded by an ongoing federal cost of living inquiry found the number of customers asking Origin for help has almost doubled in the past two years, with 98,000 on hardship programs as at June 2024.
"We are acutely aware of the pressure on household budgets at this time given the rising cost of living," Mr Calabria said
He said $90 million supported hardship customers over the past three years and $50 million was set aside for 2025, including a freeze on tariffs for some accounts.
"An important factor in helping to keep downward pressure on prices is ensuring reliable energy, and it is pleasing to see how well our generation fleet performed," Mr Calabria said, tipping a rise in value of existing assets.
The energy giant declared a fully franked final dividend of 27.5 cents, up from 20 cents a year earlier.
