Oregon State vs. San Jose State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Spartans face off with another tough Pac-12 foe in front of a national audience. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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A big-time contest in the South Bay.
WEEK 1: Oregon State Beavers vs. San Jose State Spartans (0-1)
WHEN: Sunday, September 3 — 12:30 PM PT/1:30 PM MT
WHERE: CEFCU Stadium; San Jose, CA
WEATHER: Mostly sunny, high of 76 degrees
TV: CBS
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBS, by following this link.
RADIO: The Oregon State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Beaver Sports Radio Network, including flagship NewsRadio 1190 in Portland. The San Jose State broadcast can be found on the Spartan Radio Network, including flagship 860 AM (KTRB).
SERIES RECORD: Oregon State leads the all-time series, 4-2. In the last meeting on September 19, 2015, the Beavers defeated the Spartans, 35-21, in Corvallis.
LAST GAME: Oregon State defeated Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl, 30-3, while San Jose State lost to Eastern Michigan, 41-27, in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
WEBSITES: OSUBeavers.com, the official Oregon State athletics website | SJSUSpartans.com, the official San Jose State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Oregon State | San Jose State
ODDS: Oregon State -16.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Oregon State by 21.6 (89% win probability)
FEI PROJECTION: Oregon State by 11.5
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Oregon State 58.76% win probability (31.34-20.99)
𝑺𝒆𝒆 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓𝒆. 𝟏𝟐:𝟑𝟎 𝒑𝒎.@WebcorBuilders #ClimbTheMountain | #AllSpartans pic.twitter.com/QdZ80o6BNx
— San José State Football (@SanJoseStateFB) August 31, 2023
Mountain West football will span across three days in Week 1, culminating on Sunday afternoon with a big showdown between the Oregon State Beavers and San Jose State Spartans.
The Spartans put up a good fight in a season-opening loss against USC, but the Beavers could prove to be just as tough after a ten-win 2022 campaign in which they combined a punishing rushing game with a solid defense. However, with lingering questions at quarterback and on that reloading defense, San Jose State might be in a position to do the unexpected and finish what they couldn’t against the Trojans in Week 0.
Three Keys to a San Jose State State Victory
1. Make D.J. Uiagalelei uncomfortable.
Getting pressure on USC’s Caleb Williams was always going to be a tough assignment, but the Spartans acquitted themselves reasonably well with two sacks thanks to Tre Smith and Bryun Parham. Oregon State could be just as tough to beat up front, though their veteran ranks were thinned in fall camp when multi-year starting guard Marco Brewer was lost for the season with an injury.
The Spartans will need to produce more, though, to put the Clemson transfer Uiagalelei on his heels. Last year with the Tigers, Pro Football Focus noted that he had only 2.50 seconds to throw on average, the lowest figure of any ACC quarterback, which may help explain why his pressure-to-sack ratio increased from 2021 to 2022 (16.3% to 18.9%) while other measures stagnated. Should Smith, Parham, and the rest of the front seven build off of their opening performance, that will be key to building an upset bid.
2. Stop the run.
Uiagalelei is the big-name transfer on offense, but the Beavers will ultimately go as far as running backs Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick, and Isaiah Newell can take them. Last season, the trio combined to average 5.57 yards per carry and score 16 touchdowns; that could be bad news for San Jose State since, after adjusting for sack yardage, the Spartans allowed 5.7 yards per carry to USC in Week 0.
Granted, SJSU allowed only four big chunk plays, totaling 78 rushing yards, against the Trojans, but they can’t afford to allow Oregon State to dictate the terms of the game in the trenches for too long.
3. If he’s available, get Justin Lockhart involved early.
One of the big surprises from Week 0 was that Lockhart, a preseason all-Mountain West selection, didn’t see the field at all. Nick Nash did most of the heavy lifting in Lockhart’s stead and six different Spartans saw at least three targets, but there’s little doubt the Spartans can only get better if their young star is ready to go.
As it happens, the first half was when Lockhart did most of his damage last year: He snagged 26 of his 36 total receptions in the first and second quarters and averaged 17.2 yards per catch in doing so. Oregon State’s projected starters at cornerback, Jaden Robinson and Tyrice Ivy Jr., won’t be intimidated, but Lockhart should have plenty of chances to put the fear in them
Prediction
This marks the biggest game at CEFCU Stadium in at least a few years, but San Jose State showed enough in Week 0 to think that they won’t shy away from a 12-round bout if Oregon State elects to lean on what carried them to double-digit victories last fall. It’s hard to say if the defense is up to the challenge of containing the Beavers for 60 minutes, though, and that’s likely to be the difference that keeps them at arm’s length.
Oregon State 30, San Jose State 20
