Notre Dame and Penn State meet in the Orange Bowl tonight. Here are the keys to victory for each team to reach the national title game.
Thursday night in Miami, two storied programs meet on college football’s grandest stage. Notre Dame and Penn State, each with dreams of a national title, collide in the Orange Bowl. The stakes couldn’t be higher: the victor punches its ticket to Atlanta for the national championship.
This game will be defined not by explosive fireworks but by grit, discipline, and moments of brilliance from elite defenses. In a game where the first team to 20 points may claim victory, here are the keys to success for each side.
Notre Dame’s Three Keys to Victory
1. Run the Football – Especially Riley Leonard
The heartbeat of Notre Dame’s offense is its ground game, and no one embodies that pulse more than Riley Leonard. The former Duke transfer has been the steady hand and quick feet driving the Fighting Irish forward. Leonard’s ability to extend drives with his legs isn’t just a weapon—it’s a necessity. When Notre Dame throws fewer than 30 passes in a game, they average nearly 40 points, a testament to their balanced attack.
Say what you want about him, Riley Leonard competes.
That's how you win games!!!!
pic.twitter.com/G5yaqvpvpl— GunzPicks (@GunzPicks) January 3, 2025
Against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, Leonard’s mobility was often the most effective part of the game plan. The Irish managed just 90 passing yards, leaning heavily on Leonard’s ability to scramble and create. Now, they face a Penn State front that allows only 3.1 yards per carry, one of the stingiest run defenses in the country.
Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame’s sophomore standout, is fighting through adversity. A knee injury limited him to six carries for 19 yards in the CFP quarterfinals against Georgia, the first game all season he failed to find the end zone. Even so, his explosiveness remains evident—like the 98-yard touchdown he ripped off against Indiana.
With Love wearing a knee brace, Leonard, Love, and running back Jadarian Price must rise together. Against Penn State, Notre Dame’s running game will define its fate.
2. Limit Tyler Warren
Tyler Warren stands as a towering force at 6-foot-6, 260 pounds, with the speed and agility of a wide receiver. Penn State’s senior All-America tight end is rewriting records—98 catches and counting this season—and redefining what it means to dominate from his position.
Warren is not just a challenge for defenses; he’s a conundrum. No matter the scheme, he remains the focal point of Penn State’s offense, a player who demands attention yet defies containment. Boise State threw everything at him: double teams, rolling coverages, even linebackers jamming him at the line. Yet, when the game hung in the balance, Warren found a way, especially when quarterback Drew Allar had time to deliver.
Notre Dame faces the same dilemma, but it brings a distinct advantage: relentless pressure. In playoff wins over Indiana and Georgia, the Irish racked up seven sacks, disrupting even the most seasoned quarterbacks. Against Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke, a standout all season, the Irish defense dictated terms. Against Georgia’s Gunner Stockton, making his first career start, Notre Dame’s pass rush was unyielding.
For the Irish, the strategy is clear. Pressure Allar, limit Warren’s opportunities, and disrupt the rhythm that makes Penn State’s offense tick. It’s a daunting task, but one Notre Dame must embrace to punch its ticket to the national title game.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
In games of this magnitude, turnovers aren’t just critical—they’re defining. For Notre Dame, protecting the football is a non-negotiable priority, especially against Penn State’s opportunistic defense. Riley Leonard’s composure under pressure will be tested, but his ability to avoid mistakes could be the difference.
The Fighting Irish have excelled at forcing turnovers, leading the nation with 31 takeaways this season. It was a cornerstone of their victory against Georgia, where they won the turnover battle 2-0. A strip-sack by graduate senior RJ Oben shifted momentum, while Ben Minich’s forced fumble at the goal line, recovered by Junior Tuihalamaka, sealed the Bulldogs’ fate.
georgia's 2nd fumble pic.twitter.com/EL0knVmgv5
— ◇ (@H00DH3R0) January 2, 2025
Penn State, however, rarely gives the ball away—just 14 turnovers across 15 games. In their playoff run, the Nittany Lions have thrived defensively, forcing seven turnovers against SMU and Boise State combined.
This game could hinge on which defense delivers more opportunities to its offense. With elite units on both sides, every possession will carry the weight of a season. For the Irish and Nittany Lions, the margin for error is razor-thin, and turnovers may well decide who wins the Orange Bowl and punches their ticket to the national championship.
Penn State’s Three Keys to Victory
1. Force Riley Leonard to Throw
Penn State’s defense thrives on disruption, and their mission is clear: stack the box and make Riley Leonard beat them with his arm. When Notre Dame leans on the passing game—30 or more attempts in a contest—their offensive efficiency falters. To win, the Nittany Lions must neutralize the Irish’s run game, particularly Leonard’s dual-threat capabilities.
Leonard is no ordinary quarterback. Ranking seventh nationally among quarterbacks with 831 rushing yards and tied for sixth with 15 rushing touchdowns, he’s a constant threat. His impact isn’t limited to scrambles; designed runs and read options, especially in scoring situations, are staples of Notre Dame’s attack.
Jalon Walker pressure forces a Riley Leonard throwaway.
Going to be drafted very highly in April. pic.twitter.com/ktZVA6anIs
— Justin M (@JustinM_NFL) January 2, 2025
For Penn State’s defensive line, the challenge is to create pressure while maintaining containment to limit Leonard’s ability to escape. The secondary must also hold steady when Leonard breaks free, as his knack for extending plays can be devastating.
In obvious passing situations, Penn State will lean on their “Prowler” package, likely assigning a quarterback spy. Linebacker Abdul Carter often shoulders that responsibility, but this week, freshman Max Granville could step into the role. For the Nittany Lions, it’s all about discipline and disruption—a formula they’ll need to execute perfectly to contain Notre Dame’s versatile quarterback and force him to put the ball in the air.
2. Get Tyler Warren Involved Early
For Penn State, Tyler Warren isn’t just a weapon—he’s the centerpiece of their offensive attack. They know Notre Dame will be doing everything they can to limit him. However, using him as a part-time decoy to get others involved is not an option for the Nittany Lions. Instead, the plan is clear: get him involved early and often.
In two playoff games, Warren has been a force, pulling in 13 catches on 22 targets for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Eight of those receptions have moved the chains, a testament to his reliability in critical moments. Quarterback Drew Allar will lean on Warren, particularly in the short middle of the field, where a marquee matchup awaits against Notre Dame’s All-American safety Xavier Watts.
Tyler Warren is outrageous
pic.twitter.com/MlfNucTPNE— Max Chadwick (@CFBMaxChadwick) January 1, 2025
Watts, with 13 interceptions over the past two seasons, is the anchor of the Irish defense. He’s already made his mark in the CFP with 17 tackles and a key interception. Warren’s ability to exploit defenses in the short passing game—boasting a 79.6% catch rate on passes under 10 yards, per Pro Football Focus—will be tested.
On third downs, in the red zone, and especially in tight situations, Warren is Allar’s go-to. Remember the USC game when Warren caught 17 of 20 targets? He’s capable of taking over when it matters most. Against Notre Dame, his performance could decide the outcome of the Orange Bowl.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Turnovers are the currency of Notre Dame’s defense, the moments that can tip the scales in their favor. Time and again this season, they’ve thrived on game-changing plays, forcing mistakes that spark momentum and energize their sideline. Yet, against Penn State, that challenge grows steeper. The Nittany Lions have turned the ball over just 14 times in 15 games, with only two matchups—the loss to Oregon and an overtime thriller against USC—featuring multiple turnovers.
PENN STATE GETS THEIR 3RD INT OF THE FIRST HALF 😳
WHAT IS HAPPENING?! pic.twitter.com/Jh9Gf9dWqU
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 21, 2024
The key for Penn State will be to keep Leonard in the pocket and force him into making throws he doesn’t want to make, resulting in turnovers. Notre Dame’s ground game was neutralized in the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia. Riley Leonard, the heartbeat of the offense, willed his way to 80 hard-earned rushing yards, but the star running backs were held in check. Leonard’s efficiency as a passer—safe and measured—has been his hallmark. He’s thrown multiple interceptions just once all season, in a surprising loss to Northern Illinois.
Penn State’s defense, however, is peaking. They’ve recorded three interceptions in three of their last four games. With Notre Dame potentially facing a limited ground attack, the formula becomes clear: force turnovers, protect the ball, and make the most of every possession. If Penn State wins the turnover battle, the stage could be theirs to claim an Orange Bowl win and a national championship berth.
