When economists come to write the history of the first half of the 21st century, after combing through the Great Recession, the rise of China and the Covid-19 pandemic, I wonder how they’ll reflect on what is still, at least to us, the future of work. And specifically, worklessness.
The total number of days lost by British workers to sickness has risen to an all-time high, according to the Stakhanovites at the Office for National Statistics. Around 185.6 million working days were lost in 2022, up nearly a quarter on the year before. At the same time, the overall rate of absence due to sickness or injury hit an 18-year high.
As this is the Evening Standard, I’ll add that those living in London had the lowest sickness absence rate last year. The ONS attributes this to the capital’s younger age profile and the larger concentration of high-skilled jobs, which are associated with lower levels of sickness absence.
Covid has a lot to do with the broader rise. The pandemic led to additional absences in the workplace as people fell sick, but our response to the virus, including working from home, furlough and social distancing actually reduced other causes of absence in 2020. It was the end of the furlough scheme and the return to offices, alongside new variants, that drove sickness-related absences in 2021 to above their pre-pandemic levels.
The number one cause of absences relates to minor illnesses, which rose sharply in 2022. But what will likely be of greater concern to ministers, as well as employers, is the striking rise in sickness rates for those with long-term health conditions, which has reached its highest point since 2008.
Perhaps not uncoincidentally, NHS waiting lists recently hit their own record high, with an estimated 7.2m people waiting to start routine hospital treatment at the end of February.
These figures are concerning for a number of reasons. First, being sick is clearly bad for individuals’ well-being. Second, employers miss out on labour (the number of vacancies has fallen but still sits above one million), while skills atrophy over time. Third, there is an impact on government finances, as more is spent on welfare and less revenue is raised through income and payroll taxes.
N.B. as pointed out by the TUC, one-in-10 workers receive nothing at all if they take time off sick, while an additional 28 per cent rely on statutory sick pay of £109.40 per week. As a result, many have little choice but to work when ill or in pain – an issue much debated at the height of the pandemic.
There was hope that the shift to greater working from home would enable more people, including those with long-term health conditions, to stay in or re-enter the workforce. While the chancellor recently delivered a ‘back to work’ Budget. But on the basis of today’s data, this does not appear to be happening just yet.
Elsewhere in the paper, Keir Starmer grilled Rishi Sunak at PMQs over whether he is ‘clueless about life outside bubble’. But if you want a proper parliamentary fix, check out this appearance by former Treasury permanent secretary Lord Macpherson and former cabinet secretary Lord Sedwill on the politicisation of appointments and dismissals of senior civil servants.
In the comment pages, Anne McElvoy acknowledges he’s doddery, gaffetastic and ageing, but Joe Biden is the Democrats’ best hope. Ayesha Hazarika says ‘Wake up!’ – voter ID is the biggest attack on our democracy for decades. While Suzannah Ramsdale thinks Meghan was right to reject Harry on kiss-cam.
And finally, the Evening Standard’s Art Prize is back, with the chance to have your work displayed at in an exhibition at Cromwell Place and win some cash. More info here.
