July 20 is shaping up to be something of a Super Thursday — unless you’re Rishi Sunak. Although nothing’s certain in politics these days, there’s a serious possibility that the Tories could lose all three by-elections scheduled to take place before the summer recess.
The pain looks set to continue into the autumn when (presuming she does eventually quit) Nadine Dorries’s belated departure from the Commons will trigger another potentially tricky contest — one that may end up taking place alongside what might well prove a defeat for another beleaguered leader, the SNP’s Humza Yousaf.
If things do go badly, expect the Prime Minister (or if he goes into hiding, his party chairman Greg Hands) to play down the results as reinforcing the need for the Government to hold its nerve while the harsh economic medicine the country’s being forced to swallow supposedly works its magic. Anyway, by-elections aren’t an accurate guide to the outcome of the next election, right?
Wrong. The Tories are hoping that 2024 will turn out to be another 1992, when they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, rather than a 1997, when they were buried by a Labour landslide. So expect them to point to the fact that, between taking over from Margaret Thatcher in 1990 and going to the country a couple of years later, John Major lost four Tory-held seats on the trot — two in by-elections to the Lib Dems and two to Labour.
But, long-term, the stats tell a different story. As Lib Dem president and big-time polling nerd, Mark Pack, pointed out, research suggests that by-election defeats — especially if a bunch of them involve big swings — tend to bode badly for incumbent governments.
Even worse, history suggests that they can create panic in the ranks: it was the loss of the Conservatives’ 17,000 majority in Eastbourne on a 20-point swing to the Lib Dems in October 1990, for instance, that finally persuaded her MPs that Mrs Thatcher had to go.
It’s unlikely, though, that these by-elections will do for Sunak. Most Tory MPs have decided it’s Rishi or bust. But if they’re lost badly, morale will hit rock-bottom — especially if it looks as if people vote tactically.
It’s worth recalling on that score that there are precious few seats where Labour and the Lib Dems are in direct competition with each other. So if they get their act together and make it obvious to voters (albeit informally) who stands the best chance in each constituency, then the Conservatives are in even greater trouble.
Although the two main opposition parties don’t quite seem to have decided who takes precedence in Dorries’ Mid-Beds seat (even if a recent poll there brought better news for Sir Keir Starmer than for Sir Ed Davey), it’s already pretty clear they’ve made up their minds in Uxbridge and in Selby (Labour) and in Somerton (Lib Dem).
These contests will also afford parties a chance to road-test their election messages. Watch (and listen) carefully.
