Love him or hate him, you have to take your hat off to Donald Trump; he said he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and, though it’s not quite on that timeline, he may just pull off an extraordinary feat. Volodymyr Zelensky is heading to the US to hand over some raw materials in return for silencing the guns on the eastern front. Everyone on the planet, especially those with a bit of moral compass and even those without, wants the end of this dreadful war and almost at any cost. But it must be a just settlement that the people of Ukraine can accept for today and tomorrow. Vladimir Putin’s three-week military operation has now extended to three years and until recently has shown no signs of end. So whatever we think of President Trump, it looks as though he is going to make the peace when all others have failed.
This war has cost hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives — while Russia has robbed Ukraine of a fifth of its territory.
Though the West has supported Ukraine financially and militarily, it has not given enough to help the Ukrainians actually win. Instead they have been kept in a kind of stasis: too strong to lose, but too weak to win. Let’s not forget that Putin’s illegal war has had consequences for Britain and Europe too in the form of the energy crisis — and peace would help on that score. We have spent a great deal too, giving over £12 billion in aid to help our allies.
It is notable that there were no major outbreaks of war under Trump in his first term
This deal would mark an end to all of that — peace which Western leaders have failed to achieve. It is notable that there were no major outbreaks of war under Trump in his first term.
There are also other ways to read his apparently confusing behaviour, like voting with the Russians, Iranians and North Koreans at the UN — in favour of not blaming Russia for its illegal invasion of a sovereign country. Yet Trump may be cosying up to Putin to try and rob him blind. The Russian president has duly offered tonnes of aluminium and rare earth minerals to Trump.
Peace at a price
You wonder: Eisenhower and Churchill would be turning in their graves. Then again, even the latter was not shy of a bit of deception and skulduggery to achieve a win. And at least Trump has returned the bust of the greatest Brit to The White House, while our own government seems to have banished his image from some areas of the Palace of Westminster.
Churchill would have been very unlikely to approve of the way Britain — and Europe — has behaved since his death. We’ve run down our armed forces and outsourced the defence of our continent to a nation that, as we now see, has a less pressing interest in that defence than we do. After all, the US is defended by great oceans. The carnage in Ukraine won’t and has not affected them directly. It is time Europe paid its way — and this is the uncomfortable truth President Trump has highlighted.
The war has cost hundreds of thousands of lives. Everyone on the planet wants it to end
Peace at any price may be worth having. But only the people of Ukraine should decide this. While there is a fear that partial peace now will only allow Putin to re-arm and return, the truth is that this deal could really end the war — and give Europe time to re-arm and deter any future invasion. The UK’s new commitment to increase defence spending initially to 2.5 per cent and then to three per cent does send a strong psychological message to Putin, Zelensky and Trump. With many other European nations looking likely to follow suit, even Putin must realise that his collapsing economy will disintegrate if he tries to match European military and economic horsepower.
Reasons to be glad
Trump appears to have pulled off the masterstroke that has eluded other great statesmen over the past three years. Already the feisty Emmanuel Macron has paid homage to Trump at The White House and promised much, including French nuclear weapons to guard inner Europe.
Macron realises that the nuclear deterrent may well be a cost-effective and realistic way to bolster European security. Even with all the Kremlin’s own threats of nuclear attack, it is these weapons which are and have always been the absolute guarantor of peace. For 75 years nobody, despite the greatest provocations, has dared confront these weapons. Had Ukraine not lost its own nuclear deterrent through the Budapest Memorandum in 1996, Putin would never have invaded. Zelensky shrewdly suggested that he has the know-how to regenerate a nuclear capability, if the West deserts him.
Ahead of Keir Starmer’s visit to the White House, the new prime minister has done the almost unthinkable and boosted defence spending back in the direction of Cold War levels — a level which Trump has been demanding for years. The US President requested five per cent and got three per cent from its closest ally. Yet things are changing. Even the Germans, the most lethargic European defenders of late, are looking to spend €200 billion on weapons.
The actions of Trump do have the unguessable air of mystery, with him only appearing to listen to Elon Musk
The actions of Trump do have the unguessable air of mystery, with him only appearing to listen to Elon Musk. But look where we are. Just a few weeks into Trump’s second term and the two wars — Ukraine and the Gaza conflict — which have blighted the world now seem to have their ends in sight.
No doubt we will soon be laying out the bunting for the 47th President, given his reported love for all things British.
Like it or not the American leader is around for another four years. This is only the start. It’s better, frankly, if we are aware of just how transactional he is and just how much he likes dramatic gestures. But, most importantly, it appears he is going to stop the murder in Ukraine and for that we must all be truly thankful.
Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE was commanding officer of the UK’s Joint Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Regiment
