Donald Trump says his seven-point peace plan is his last throw on Ukraine – saying to Moscow and Ukraine, take it, or I leave it. “It’s time for them to either say yes, or the United States to walk away from the process,” said JD Vance in his characteristic faux-naïve rhetoric.
Not so easy. In truth the leaked proposals are just the opening move in an elaborate chess game that is unlikely to deliver peace to Ukraine before summer ends. If the game goes awry, almost every player could be a loser, not only Zelensky’s Ukraine, currently the Number One victim in the drama, but Russia, America and Europe as well.
The Trump terms are crude and favour Russia. Russia gets what it has grabbed in eleven years of warfare, including the recognition by Washington of Crimea as sovereign Russian territory. Russia is favoured by the lifting of sanctions sugared with US energy cooperation, the freezing for eternity any possibility of Ukraine joining Nato, and Ukraine is to share mineral profits with the US – in other words pay reparations for being invaded.
As the New York Times puts it bluntly, “European allies have charged that Mr Trump is essentially switching sides in the war, and his real goal is to cast Ukraine aside and to find a way to normalize relations with Moscow.” In recognizing Russia’s sovereign right to Crimea through invasion, the Trump team goes against a fundamental tenet of the UN Charter, and the Helsinki Final Act that frames the OSCE. They both set down architecture for security and cooperation in wider Europe, to which both Moscow and Washington were signatories.
Both the UN and Helsinki agreements hold that international borders shall not be altered by violence and military action. In pitching for Putin over territory grabbed since 2014, Trump has taken a wrecking ball to the very system for international peace and security, of which America has been the lead architect since 1945. The move diminishes America’s standing, and international probity and credibility – and it joins Russia as a lead rule breaker.
The spotlight now is on the meeting between Trump’s personal envoy and golf buddy, Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir Putin
This must put the European leadership on their guard. Already international customers, including Gulf States, Canada, Denmark and Turkey even are moving away from being dependent on US weaponry. The UK needs to do the same with greater urgency. In particular the multi-billion pound deals for American aircraft for the RAF such as the P8 Poseidon and Wedgetail surveillance aircraft, and the F-35 — all three now looking flaky to near-disastrous — need rigorous scrutiny.
The spotlight now is on the meeting between Trump’s personal envoy and golf buddy, Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir Putin, the fourth so far. The role of Witkoff seems some from a Goodfellas script. What is his true mission — envoy, bagman, trusted conveyor of private messages between two narcissistic leaders? There is also the side dish of his discussion with Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin’s top investment banker, about mineral deals and joint US-Russian ventures to exploit the natural resources in the deep and remote tundra — a prospector’s prospect based more in fantasy than fact, one suspects.
For all the favours and compliments from Washington, Putin does not get all he wants from the latest peace plan
For all the favours and compliments from Washington, Putin does not get all he wants from the latest peace plan. His aim in invading Ukraine on February 24th 2022 was to “denazify” Ukraine, outright regime change, and to return the country to the Russian fold and Russian dominion. Today Zelensky is still there, and Russia’s ground war is stalling, despite a record call-up of recruits and conscripts and roughly 640,000 troops committed to the theatre of operations. The strategic hub of Pokrovsk has not fallen after six months of assault. The main targets for Russian drones and missiles are now defenceless civilians going about their daily business — a war crime in anybody’s rulebook.
Putin is desperate to declare victory by May 9th, in time for the parade in Red Square, celebrating Soviet Russia’s victory in 1945 in the Great Patriotic War. Expect a massive propaganda and influence operation declaring triumph in the Special Military Operation in Ukraine. Another long, hot summer of war will expose the strains, the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives, the overheated economy, the dependence on North Korea for artillery shells and ammunition.
Zelensky’s Ukraine is in dire straits, down but not out. Europe cannot walk away — and this puts an onus on Starmer and the UK. Britain is the only one of the three signatories to the Budapest memorandum guaranteeing the sovereignty and independence of Ukraine that is sticking to the rules-based order on this — the others being the US and Russia.
By saying he’ll take his bat and ball and walk away if he is not obeyed, Trump risks looking impotent and a touch ridiculous in an access of adolescent petulance.
And it must be noted that the first point in his peace plan is an immediate ceasefire. Unfortunately, not too much notice is being taken on the ground. The war goes on.
Robert Fox is defence editor
