Ukraine is headed for a messy, quick-fix ceasefire – which is unlikely to deliver long term peace in eastern Europe. A likely outcome from what the Trump and Putin teams are proposing could be ten years of guerrilla warfare across a large chunk of Europe and the borders of Asia.
In Kyiv the mood today is of fear and apprehension. Ukrainians are worried that a deal is being done above their heads, and that the Zelensky government will be presented with a take it or leave it fait accompli.
The outlines of the Moscow side of the offer have been clear since last summer. The Russian state and its forces hang on to what they have seized already, with Crimea and the Donbas industrial zone as the key components.
The Kyiv government, with or without Volodymyr Zelensky must guarantee political and military neutrality: no membership of Nato ever, and progress towards the EU postponed.
These terms will be spelled out at the Munich Security Conference this weekend, staring Friday. Vice President JD Vance will meet President Zelensky and, it seems, present him with what would in any other circumstances look like an ultimatum.
Awkward details are still up in the air. How would the deal be policed? The UK press has been floating ideas, created by the fantasy department of Whitehall, that Britain could provide 24,000 soldiers to take the lead in a European peacekeeping and monitoring force – which, according to some of the more bizarre spins, might include Chinese and Indian contingents.
It is questionable, given its present preparedness or lack of, that the Army could put together a force package of this side in short order. And from the Treasury, apparently, Rachel Reeves has let it be known there can be no extra money for this, and it will have to be funded from the existing MoD budget.
Some in Kyiv are talking of a repeat of a version of the Molotov Ribbentrop pact
This is in line with the indication from discussions about the benighted Defence Review that she doesn’t want to give more funds to defence in any shape. She would prefer cuts.
Some in Kyiv are talking of a repeat of a version of the Molotov Ribbentrop pact that led to the splitting of Poland between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russian as they carved out their areas of interest in 1939. Poland was divided and occupied – an echo of its dismembering by the great European powers a century and a half before.
As in 1939 and 1793, and 1795, when the state of Poland disappeared for 123 years, Russia will use the partitioning of Ukraine to extend its influence across a widening area of eastern Europe. European neighbours and their sponsors won’t accept this. The outlines of the Ukraine carve-up reported this week from half a dozen capitals, Moscow, Washington, Brussels included, suggest this could be a recipe for a ten-year guerrilla war across Europe.
Poland, the three Baltic states, the Nordic countries of Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark will not accept the emasculation of Ukraine envisaged by Putin and his cronies on Russia’s Security Council such as foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, former president Medvedev, and the supreme fixer Nikolai Patrushev. The Nordic and Baltic states are fearful that Russia may be emboldened by a favourable settlement to weaken Ukraine. A ragged campaign of subversion and disruption, affecting communication hubs, underwater pipelines and cables, and cyber storms could run for years – as to an extent they have been already against Poland, Finland, Estonia and their neighbours.
Vladimir Putin could claim victory already from the various announcements by members of the Trump administration about war in Ukraine, and security in Europe. Vice President Vance and Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth have both said that the defence of Europe is not a priority on their watch. “Stark strategic realities prevent the US from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” Hegseth told defence ministers in Brussels yesterday. “The United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”
This means that Putin has succeeded in his prime aim of dislocating and weakening Nato. The alliance has long depended on US leadership, nuclear umbrella US forces provide, and the principle of mutual defence in Article 5 of Nato’s founding treaty. This holds that if any of the 32 member nations is attacked, the allies as a whole are bound to come to its defence. The Trump team hold that this clause is voluntary – a matter of choice – and not obligatory.
After a century of commitment, saving the peace and a western way of civilisation, America is leaving Europe largely to its own devices
This is a colossal propaganda win for Putin and the Putinist view of renew Russian imperialism.
Donald Trump has proposed he can seal the deal by a meeting with Putin, most likely to be in Saudi Arabia in the next few weeks. China’s Xi Jinping has proposed, alternatively, that he could host a peace summit for Ukraine with Trump and Putin. Nobody is mentioning an invitation for Zelensky. Moscow has rejected the China offer – but Beijing can’t and won’t be ignored, given Russia’s dependence on China to sustain its wasteful military campaigns and war economy.
The European allies, including Britain, are on notice. They have to come up with a new alliance architecture and scheme of manoeuvre to cope with the next episode of the gathering storm across eastern Europe. After a century of commitment, saving the peace and a western way of civilisation, America is leaving Europe largely to its own devices. The new shape of European alliance must be ready by the end of June, the major Nato summit at The Hague on 24th and 25th June, at the latest.
For Keir Starmer and Britain there is an urgent requirement, to generate credible armed forces. The projection of power and the utility of fore, correctly understood and applied, are essential components of strategy and security at home and abroad. Sadly such concepts are increasing strangers to the thinking and understanding of Whitehall and Westminster – especially among the number crunchers in the Rachel Reeves Treasury.
Robert Fox is defence editor
