It was only a year ago that Labour lost the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election. Despite double-digit poll leads across the country, the party fell short by 495 votes in a contest widely interpreted as a referendum on the extension of Sadiq Khan's Ultra-low emission zone (Ulez).
The fallout from that result was significant. First, Keir Starmer said some not so nice things about the Mayor of London. And second, Rishi Sunak took that narrow victory and used it to pivot the Tories, rhetorically at least, away from net zero. How times have changed. Today, Uxbridge and South Ruislip has a Labour MP, prime minister Starmer is launching the government's clean energy company, and Khan, who romped home to a third mayoral term, has every reason to feel a little bit smug.
As City Hall Editor Ross Lydall writes, a new report has revealed that the Ulez extension resulted in a "better than expected" reduction in toxic exhaust emissions from cars and vans. The scheme has cut the amount of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a toxic gas, detected at roadside locations in outer London by an estimated 2.7 per cent to 2.4 per cent – up to double that initially predicted.
To be clear, these improvements are significantly less dramatic than those witnessed following the launch of the central London Ulez in 2019 and the inner London one in 2021. However, this was to be expected, because outer London areas were already benefitting from the first two iterations.
It is also important to note that other factors have contributed to the fall in NO2, including the rollout of zero emission busses, the rise in cycling and the phasing out of diesel taxis. Indeed, the City Hall report acknowledges that it "is not straightforward to isolate the impact of the Ulez and its expansions."
Finally, as Ross points out in his news piece, today's report does not provide figures that would enable critics to establish whether the enlarged zone has cleaned up the air by as much as was originally promised in TfL’s 2022 consultation (in which a majority of respondents opposed the widening).
But at this point, we are in danger of overcomplicating a pretty straightforward story. This was a political battle and to be blunt, Khan has won it. First against his party leader, then at the ballot box, and now with the science.
The facts are that the Ulez extension is settled policy. Air quality has improved a little. Khan and Starmer are friends again. And Labour is in power and hegemonic both in London and across the country. It does not get more conclusive than that.
