Until recently, if you asked me who would win the next general election, even after partygate, I would have reluctantly said the Tories — as they are hardwired to pursue, acquire and retain power.
But a lot can happen in a year. Twelve long months ago, Liz Truss was buzzing about preparing her leadership campaign and the political world as we knew it was about to tumble upside down. We learned three things. Never dismiss the novelty candidate. Never bet against the vegetable (not her, the iceberg). And never mess with people’s mortgages. While Liz and the lettuce are long gone, the mortgage hell is here to stay, and it’s killing the Tory party.
Yesterday saw two-year mortgage deals rise to 6.66 per cent, which surpassed the peak seen in the wake of Truss’s doomed mini-Budget — rising to the highest levels since the financial crisis. This is a result of the Bank of England’s decision to increase interest rates. This means customers moving to new deals could be paying an extra £200 a month.
Things look set to get even worse. With wages rising again, this is affecting inflation and it’s likely that interest rates will go up again next month. We have the extraordinary situation where we have high wage growth, yet people are feeling worse off, and their mortgages (and rents) are going through the roof. This is a broken economy. To be fair, things haven’t been going swimmingly for a long time.
But politics isn’t a nuanced, fair game, as the Tories well know. They blamed Labour for the global financial crash. They still pull out that note from outgoing chief secretary to the Treasury Liam Byrne in 2010, which famously quipped: “I’m afraid there is no money.” Well, what goes around comes around.
Many of us just haven’t experienced this kind of serious financial anxiety before in our adult lives
The mortgage misery people are facing now is intense and many of us haven’t experienced this kind of financial anxiety before in our adult lives. The sleepless nights panicking about rising repayments. Praying that you or your partner won’t lose their job if there’s a recession. It’s horrible. And everyone’s talking about it. “When does yours end?” is the new watercooler chat.
I realise that many people don’t have a mortgage and renting especially in the capital has been painful for a while, but the truth is that mortgage holders (along with pensioners) hold a special place in British politics, as unfair as that may be. The public may see terrible economic headlines about GDP and falling growth and shake their heads, but as soon as they feel the pain through mortgage hikes they’re swearing like navvies and looking for someone to blame. And it’s not Vladimir Putin. Or Gordon Brown. It’s the people who have been in power for 13 years and who last yearspooked the markets for fun.
Many Tories know that this why it feels as though it is over. As one said to me last week at a Westminster summer party, “we used to be the party of the economy, business and homeowners — well, we’ve f***ed that right up.” In vino veritas.
My common link with Nigella Lawson
It’s fair to say that (sadly) I don’t have much in common with domestic goddess Nigella Lawson. Until now! Lawson has said she’s no longer hosting dinner parties, instead preferring guests to pop over to feast on Twiglets in their pyjamas. She says she’s “got out of the habit of hosting elaborate soirees and believes a lot of the prep is much too much fuss”. Preach, sister! I never actually got into the habit of fancy dinner parties as I’m a horrendous cook and always fear being like the dud one in Come Dine With Me. Once I enthusiastically tweeted a dish I thought was good which didn’t go so well. Someone messaged me to say that as a former prison inspector they didn’t think my dinner could get served to inmates. Another person asked why I had posted a photo of pig’s swill. So I give up with glee. But Nigella is welcome at mine for some Whispering Angel and Monster Munch.
