Even by its own high standards, the Conservative Party’s current approach to immigration is particularly bonkers. Tories want Britain to fear a tidal wave of migrants while simultaneously basing their entire prospectus on the economic benefits of migration — all without even trying to explain how those two positions might fit together. It’s a mess that suggests the party isn’t really committed to winning elections — especially in London.
Let’s start with the Channel crossing bit of this mess, since that’s where Tory planners want your attention to be. Government strategists believe there is political advantage for the Conservatives in repeatedly pointing to people seeking to reach Britain via small boats, then waving their hands angrily and making increasingly harsh-sounding promises to Do Something to stop this. Hence threats to deport some migrants to Rwanda (number deported so far: zero) and house others in barges and ferries (also zero).
In the narrowest sense, this is working, in that Conservative-inclined voters are becoming a bit more likely to see irregular migration as a problem. The trouble for the Conservatives is that voters don’t have much faith in them to solve that problem. A YouGov poll this week showed that 63 per cent of voters don’t believe Rishi Sunak will be able to deliver on his promises of an ever-tougher regime for clandestine migrants.
To anyone who recalls David Cameron’s spectacular mishandling of migration politics in the early part of the last decade, this is all too familiar. Then, the Tory position on immigration was brilliantly and savagely summarised by my friend Alex Massie as: “Ukip are right — don’t vote for them.”
Today, if you’re a voter predisposed to worry about unauthorised migration and believe the people in charge aren’t willing to address your worries, the Conservatives are telling you you’re dead right, then asking for your vote. And while Ukip aren’t the force they were, between them and their cousins in Reform UK they still get around eight per cent in the polls — not a small number for a Conservative Party that’s around 18 points behind Labour.
As for the rest of the electorate, many might be left wondering why Conservatives spend so much time talking about small boats, prison hulks and Rwanda at a time when they mainly care about the cost of living and the economy. The latest Ipsos Mori Issues Tracker poll shows that 39 per cent say inflation is a national priority. On immigration, 20 per cent say it’s important.
Economic issues show how disjointed the modern Conservative approach to migration has become. Last month’s Budget, cheered by Conservatives for promising (modest) growth and no recession, was built entirely on migration. Those growth forecasts were raised because officials expect that net migration will run at 245,000 a year in coming years. That’s the official economic policy of a Government whose Home Secretary has said her “ultimate aspiration” is to reduce net migration to sub-100,000 level promised — but never delivered, natch — by Cameron.
Very few Tories ever speak about the economic advantages of migration, apparently worried that doing so will upset voters. They should pay more attention to reports like a recent paper from King’s College London, which shows that British voters are largely positive about the effects of immigration. They might also reflect on the fact that the most economically productive corner of the UK is also the one with the highest proportion of residents born outside Britain.
A lot of politicians and journalists enjoy bashing London, but if more bits of Britain had a skilled global workforce like London’s, the country would be richer and happier.
That’s not a story you’ll hear from Conservatives as the next general election approaches: they appear more interested in shoring up the core Tory vote in hopes of avoiding a shattering defeat than in building a winning coalition of voters. While copying Cameron’s mistakes on migration, Sunak’s wider approach sometimes brings to mind Michael Howard’s core vote campaign of 2005.
The general election isn’t the only one due next year, though. London will elect a mayor too. With little more than a year until that contest, the Tories have neither a heavyweight candidate nor an immigration platform to offer the capital’s voters. That doesn’t suggest a party that’s serious about winning.
