I hate to be rude to the voters but this is shaping up to be quite a dull set of election results, in the sense that a lot of priors are being confirmed. A few reflections below:
1. The Tories are on course for an electoral wipeout of some description, with the party expected to lose around half the council seats it was defending. In other words, the polls were broadly accurate.
2. But Rishi Sunak can breathe a sigh of relief in that Ben Houchen has held the Tees Valley mayoralty while Andy Street looks set to cling on in the West Midlands. But even here the figures reiterate the Conservative problem. Three years ago, Houchen won by 46 points. Today, that has been reduced to 12, and the winner didn't even sport a blue rosette on the stage. Oh, and Sunak himself now has a Labour mayor.
3. Labour has had a good night. The party won the Blackpool South by-election on a swing of 26.3 per cent, the the third largest from the Tories to the party at a by-election since the Second World War. The party also picked up councils in Thurrock, Redditch, Hartlepool and Rushmoor. Meanwhile Swindon Council, a critical parliamentary battle ground which the Tories held until last year, now has 41 Labour councillors to 15 Conservatives.
4. But there is still cause for concern. Labour appears to have leaked votes in areas with a higher Muslim population, as evidenced by the loss of Oldham council, albeit these are generally in parliamentary constituencies that are heavily Labour. The party also disappointed in Harlow, an area it held under the leadership of both Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn.
5. Reform finished just 117 votes behind the Conservatives in Blackpool South, which even in a low turnout election is close, but isn't the sort of numbers Ukip was putting up a decade ago. Still, the full-throttle return of Nigel Farage would represent a far bigger threat to the Tories.
6. A steady as she goes election result is likely to prompt little change in Westminster. Sunak's position was already as good as safe. If his party wasn't going to switch the leader before last night, it's not clear why it would do so now. Houchen's victory gives wavering Tory backbenchers a reason not to submit their letters to Sir Graham Brady.
7. As for Starmer, he may be less personally popular than pre-2010 David Cameron and pre-1997 Tony Blair, but on the basis of everything we are seeing, it does not seem to matter much. I mean, the bloke has overseen six by-election swings greater than 20 percentage points in the past 12 months.
8. Given all this, it seems fairly likely that Sadiq Khan will win a third term in the capital, albeit perhaps by as little as 5 points over Conservative challenger Susan Hall. Khan would sorely love to secure 40 per cent, but as my Dad often says of his beloved Arsenal, "a win is a win is a win". Check out City Hall editor Ross Lydall's guide to the first clues to a Khan or Hall victory.
