As Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron meet in Paris, there is no shortage of urgent topics up for discussion. The summit will not have been without symbolism, with the prime minister attending a ceremony in the French capital to mark the 106th anniversary of the Armistice of 1918. But it is events of the present day that will be occupying their minds.
The election of Donald Trump poses a threat to Europe, both to its economy and security. The president-elect campaigned on a promise to erect tariffs against not only adversaries such as China, but its allies too. Such an imposition would threaten Britain’s already sluggish economy. Indeed, last week Goldman Sachs cut its 2025 forecast for UK GDP from 1.6 per cent to 1.4 per cent, blaming the risk of US tariffs on British goods.
An EU-wide response to any such tariffs would mean a trade war, with consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic suffering the fallout. It would also leave Britain with a choice to make. Outside of the customs union, we have far less influence and room for manoeuvre. Global Britain is looking increasingly isolated in this new and more dangerous world.
Concerns around defence and security are similarly heightened. The British and French armed forces work exceptionally closely together. But capability remains the central question. European nations, both western and eastern, must raise defence spending, not simply to impress Trump, but to insure against the possibility of a US withdrawal from Nato. This will cost money and require further painful tax rises or spending cuts. But in a world absent of US leadership, where treaty allies can be dropped at a moment’s notice, there is no alternative.
The US has gone through bouts of isolationism before. History has shown the consequences. Global instability, an economic race to the bottom and ultimately, armed conflict. Britain, alongside its European allies, must hope that this can be avoided, while at the same time prepare for the worst. Today's two minutes' silence and the laying of a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Solider only serve as a reminder of the consequences of failure.
