By-elections are different to general elections. Voters understand they are electing a single Member of Parliament, not a government. They often take place in mid-term, at a time when prime ministers are at their least popular. Local issues regularly dominate. They ought, therefore, to come with a health warning.
And yet this does not feel like the usual mid-term blues. The Conservatives, having lost the Wakefield by-election to Labour last year and Tiverton and Honiton to the Lib Dems on a swing of 29.9 per cent, could face defeat in a further three in the space of a month: Uxbridge and South Ruislip in West London, Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire and Somerton and Frome in Somerset.
Recent history suggests the Tories have been reasonably swift to depose leaders potentially taking them to electoral oblivion. Yet another change at the top is neither the answer, nor is it remotely feasible. After 13 years in power, and in the face of fierce economic headwinds, the Conservative Party must demonstrate it still has the will, the energy and the vision to drive Britain forward. That is no easy task.
Susan still in slow lane
Are you with Susan? The Tory mayoral frontrunner is not afraid of an eye-catching policy or two, her latest during an interview with the Evening Standard being a pledge to lift 20mph speed limits on main roads in central London.
This will undoubtedly prove popular with a segment of the electorate, even if it will not necessarily get them to their destination any faster. Still, the danger of such policies is not only to pedestrians, but to the Tories themselves: that Hall’s pitch, in conjunction with her previous support for Donald Trump, will fail to attract a sufficient breadth of voters.
The reality is that to stand a chance of winning in the capital, the Conservatives must persuade swing voters. Tory red meat policies will not cut it. Despite the pronouncements from party chairman Greg Hands, it is not too late to reopen the selection and find a candidate who can give the Mayor a run for his money.
Psychic tale is a winner
The Gift, a wonderful short story by Kelvin Hill about a family coming to terms with their psychic powers, has won the Standard’s Stories competition.
The piece prevailed over 1,300 other writers asked to explore the theme of ‘belonging’, with one of our judges predicting “great things” for the winner. Congratulations to Kelvin, and those other shortlisted writers. To read the winning story, go to: stories.standard.co.uk
