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The UK economy is not in recession but it is stuck in a low-growth trap. GDP in the three months to June registered a 0.2 per cent jump, marking the fifth successive quarter in which the economy has kept its head above water since a 0.5 per cent advance in the first quarter of 2022 — when Britain was still bouncing back from the Covid-19-induced recession.
June was a strong month but our economic performance must be measured by more than single-month or even quarterly figures. The British economy remains smaller today than it was pre-pandemic, while the US is more than five per cent larger. And if inflation fails to fall, higher interest rates may tip the country into recession.
The Chancellor is right to remain laser-focused on the fight against inflation. To that end, all eyes will be on July’s rate, set to be revealed next week. Should it fall as forecast, Jeremy Hunt will breathe easier. Higher than predicted and the Bank of England may hike rates. Either way, this has been a dismal period for growth and living standards.
Give hope to Guppies
City Hall and central government are at loggerheads again, this time over housebuilding. The Mayor, Sadiq Khan, has written to Housing Secretary Michael Gove, warning that construction in the capital could “grind to a halt” without an additional £2.2bn to deliver 35,000 affordable home starts by March 2026.
It is sorely needed. Many young Londoners are giving up on ever being able to afford to buy, and they have the now-customary moniker, Guppies, or the ‘given up’ on property set. Young people are the lifeblood of any city, and London should not become the playground only of those born into wealth.
The housing crisis will not be solved in the space of one parliament. But we must start now, and that ought to begin with the Mayor and ministers working together, not against the other, to ensure that our city will again become a place where residents can make a life and build a home.
Roar for the Lionesses
After more than 120 minutes of tension on Monday, the nation’s eyes return once again to the Lionesses, who take on Colombia for a place in the World Cup semi-finals.
England will be without the suspended Lauren James tomorrow but must take confidence from showing a quality of champions — winning without playing well.
In knockout football, the result is all that matters. Still, it would be nice to avoid the anguish of penalties.