That was not supposed to happen. James Cleverly, the favourite to be next leader of the Conservatives, will now not even have the opportunity to face party members, having failed to attract enough votes in the final round of MP voting.
It is now fairly obvious that, either by design or accident, some of his supporters ‘lent’ their votes to other candidates, assuming their man had enough to get through. They were wrong, and on such miscalculations do the cogs of history grind on.
Remarkably, it is two candidates of the Tory Right, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, who will now proceed to the party-wide ballot. The victor will become Leader of the Opposition, and the party’s candidate for Prime Minister in 2029. Or perhaps not.
A conscious decision by the Conservatives to lurch ever further to the Right, whether on immigration, tax and spend or culture war issues, confers great risk. Such a shift may - or may not - win back support from Reform UK. But it is guaranteed to further alienate the millions of voters who have already defected en masse to Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
It is entirely possible that neither Badenoch nor Jenrick survives a full parliament as leader. And, like Iain Duncan Smith before them, is deposed mid-term in order to protect the party from electoral oblivion.
Workers’ rights
No one with even a cursory interest in politics ought to be surprised that a new Labour Government intends to strengthen workers' rights. The question is: how far will it go, and what will be the impact not only on employees but employers too?
The changes are wide-ranging, including plans to ban “exploitative” zero-hours contracts and “unscrupulous” fire and rehire practices. Indeed, the Bill contains 28 individual changes. The devil, as ever, will be in the detail.
The Government is correct to identify problems within the current framework. Work should pay, and labour market has changed in recent years, not least as a result of new technologies. The unions have therefore largely welcomed that plan.
But not everyone is happy. Businesses, particularly SMEs, are no doubt concerned about what more regulation means for their ability to take on new workers. Tina McKenzie of the Federation of Small Businesses, called the legislation “a rushed job, clumsy, chaotic and poorly planned”.
There is a lot of sensible policy in this Bill, for both workers and businesses. Security at work and protection from nefarious employers is vital. At the same time, ministers must be vigilant that changes do not lead to lower employment levels overall reduces or productivity. Consultation is a must, and the fine print will be fiercely contested.
