The 1997 election is about as close in time to the switch to a decimal currency in 1971 as it is to today. In other words, the world has changed since then. Still, the signs of a repeat in 2024 for Rishi Sunak are ominous.
Labour’s average poll lead stands at a commanding 19 points. Eight in 10 voters are dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country, two-thirds say it is time for a change. A “1997-style” landslide is hardly out of the question.
At the same time, Sir Keir Starmer does not possess the same charisma — or perhaps more importantly the approval ratings — as Sir Tony Blair. In December, the Labour leader’s net satisfaction stood at minus 21, compared with plus 18 in January 1997.
The country has changed too. Demographically, socially and financially, following a turbulent decade of economic shocks. Unlike in 1997, whoever wins the next election faces an immense fiscal tightrope. In positioning himself as a prime minister-in-waiting, the scrutiny now falls on Sir Keir for the practical steps he would take in government.
That is the challenge he must rise to over the next 10 or so months.
Schools in jeopardy
London’s world-class education system faces an unprecedented threat from an exodus of families from the capital that is forcing ever more schools to shut their doors. Nearly 8,000 fewer children will require school places over the next four years, according to a report by London Councils.
This is driven by Brexit, the pandemic, falling birth rates and the cost-of-living crisis. Given the way schools are funded, this means many must close or find ways to balance budgets, including by cutting teacher numbers, narrowing the curriculum or offering fewer after-school clubs.
The report warns that this will lead to a “drop in standards which will impact children’s long-term educational attainment”, which threatens to set back the remarkable improvements made in London schools which sees children in the capital now securing the best exam results in the country.
Falling birth rates are an issue across the rich world, but the Government must ensure that school funding in the capital is maintained so that London remains a leader in educational attainment.
All’s fare in votes race
Mere months from the mayoral election and Sadiq Khan has found yet more money down the back of the City Hall couch. The Mayor has announced that all Tube fares on Friday are to be charged at off-peak rates to encourage commuters back to central London.
A welcome move, no doubt, but Fridays have been desperately quiet for some time — has Khan just noticed? Londoners can only hope for mayoral elections to be held every six months.
