The 2024 US election cycle has begun with a Donald Trump victory — will it end that way too? The former president stormed to a win in the Republican Iowa caucus, beating his nearest rivals by 30 points and carrying 98 of the state’s 99 counties. In a contested race, it does not get more conclusive than that.
Next, the circus moves on to New Hampshire where Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina and Trump’s UN ambassador, hopes to secure a strong result before winning her home state. Yet it is difficult at this point to see this as anything other than a battle for second place.
For the large percentage of the global population living outside of Iowa, the implications of a second Trump presidency would be titanic. In his first term, he was somewhat restrained both by moderate voices in his administration as well as his own ill-preparedness for office. The sequel promises to be different. Throw in an ever more dangerous world and perceived scores to be settled and the next few years could bring pure chaos.
Sunak’s big challenge
The Rwanda Bill has become a test of Rishi Sunak’s authority. The Prime Minister has long had to manage the various factions within his backbenchers, and now faces a potential mutiny from two of his own deputy party chairmen — Lee Anderson and Brendan Clarke-Smith — who have signalled they would vote against the current version of the Bill.
Keeping a fractious Conservative Party together has been made more challenging by fresh polling which suggests the Tories could be on course for a 1997-style drubbing at the next general election.
The rights, wrongs, legalities and costs of this legislation have been debated for months. It is far from clear that the Rwanda scheme will provide value for money, act as a deterrent or meet the UK’s international obligations. But for a Prime Minister under pressure, that is allsecondary to a more pressing political question: can he keep his party together until the autumn?
Sir Elton the EGOT
Sir Elton John can have few more “firsts” to go — that is the inevitable consequence of having seen and done it all. But the singer-songwriter managed one last night when he picked up his first Emmy Award, making him an EGOT — a winner of Emmy, Grammy, Oscar and Tony awards.
Elton John Live: Farewell From Dodger Stadium won best variety special live at the awards ceremony in Los Angeles last night. Sadly, Sir Elton was unable to pick up his award as he is recovering from a knee operation. Get well soon, and congratulations.
