British elections are won on the centre ground. Whoever occupies that territory generally sweeps to power. This being the case, why doesn’t everyone do it?
Well, political parties – even the Conservative Party – are ideological. But holding the centre ground sometimes means postponing or even jettisoning earnestly-held beliefs. This makes dragging your party to the centre difficult, and keeping it there for more than a few election cycles virtually impossible.
To be clear the centre isn’t fixed – successful prime ministers can shape it, shift it, sometimes a little, sometimes a lot. Margaret Thatcher’s government forced Tony Blair to accept a market economy and trade union legislation. Blair in turn made David Cameron adopt social liberalism and embrace the NHS.
Furthermore, to hold the centre ground, you don’t even need to be a centrist like Blair who, after being asked by an old colleague if they could finally drop the New Labour schtick, replied: “It’s worse than you think. I really do believe in it.”
Largely, this is about perception. David Cameron had the vibes of a liberal, but on economic policy governed considerably to the right. That was still enough to defeat a left-ish Ed Miliband and drive Labour so mad its members elected Jeremy Corbyn.
Rishi Sunak could have governed from the centre. A true believing Brexiteer he may have been, but that nice chap from Southampton with the head boy tilt had come to save the country from Boris Johnson’s personal failings and Liz Truss’s economic calamity.
The start was encouragingly technocratic, from the Windsor Framework to the Aukus submarine deal. But the polls were not getting any better. With Labour now consistently 15-20 points ahead, Sunak decided he needed to draw up new dividing lines. In doing so, he has marched the Tories well and truly off the centre ground.
Net zero is perhaps the most obvious example. Two weeks ago, Sunak weakened his party’s climate credentials, while today his protégé and new Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary, Claire Coutinho, used her conference speech to accuse Labour of turning net zero into a religion.
I know it’s conference season but this is hardly the language of moderation. But more to the point, how is this supposed to paint Starmer as an extremist when, until a few minutes ago, both Labour and the Tories essentially held identical climate policies (and on net zero still kind of do)?
Some of these policy positions – on climate or asylum – may poll well individually. The British public tends to be pretty right-wing on law and order and asylum, while there are legitimate concerns about how much the energy transition will cost. But parties do not win elections on the cumulative popularity of individual policies.
Starmer has his own problems, of course, not least the fact that the public regards him as a flip-flopper. Possibly because he has flip-flopped on practically every pledge that saw him win the 2020 leadership election. But the Labour leader has, rightly in my view, concluded that being seen as wishy-washy is a price worth paying to hold fiscally credible, vaguely centrist positions.
Sunak has never been a moderate – he is the most right-wing Tory leader since Iain Duncan Smith. Starmer isn’t one either, by the way, but he has at least decided to act like one, while his membership is largely supportive, because they really want to win the next election.
Opposition parties tend to struggle to win elections because they find the centre ground is already occupied. But this time, the Tories have vacated it. This is not only a gift to Labour – it is an explicit acknowledgement that Starmer’s strategy is working.
In the comment pages, Dylan Jones warns that Oxford Street must change, or die. Samuel Muston asks: what’s the rudest thing you can do on a train? While Paul Crooks marks the start of Black History Month.
And giving a whole new meaning to the ‘and finally’ section, Lady Sue Carr has become the first female Chief Justice in England and Wales, a role first created in the 13th century.
