You’ve probably seen the columns, perhaps even in the Evening Standard. The Conservatives are on the up. There is even some evidence to back this up. Gone are Labour leads of 25+ percentage points, the party now having to settle for something around 15 points.
The reasons for this renaissance are fairly obvious. The Conservatives took a Mulligan on their leadership contest, swiftly replacing a discredited prime minister and chancellor with a pair who recently managed a fiscal event without precipitating a mortgage crisis.
Then there are the Rishi Sunak successes, from the Windsor Framework to the Aukus agreement and a resetting of relations with France. But one good month need not necessarily lead to another. And the announcement this morning by the National Education Union of further strike action goes some way to explaining why.
Teachers are set to walk out on April 27 and May 2 after 98 per cent of union members rejected the government’s offer of an additional one-off £1,000 payment this year and an average 4.5 per cent rise for most staff in the next school year, describing it as “insulting”. And they are not alone. The next couple of months are likely to feature strikes by junior doctors, nurses, headteachers, civil servants, Heathrow workers amongst others.
The Government delayed pay offers and swallowed political pain in order to put greatest focus on financial year 2023-24 (hence the offers of one-off payments in the first year). But as inflation refuses to fall and relations between ministers and unions remain tense, progress will require more money.
Remember, cash on the table isn’t important only to end this round of industrial action, but to ensure a high enough salary to recruit and retain teachers. This report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that salaries for more experienced and senior teachers in England have fallen by 13% in real-terms since 2010.
But it goes well beyond teachers. Other problems that dogged the Tories in February haven’t suddenly vanished. Mortgage rates calmed back from their mini-budget-induced spike, but hundreds of thousands of people are still coming off their fixed-rate deals and grappling with paying hundreds of pounds more a month than before. At the same time, frozen income tax thresholds mean a real-terms tax rise of £500 for a typical basic rate taxpayer and £1,000 for higher rate payers in 2023-24.
Inflation is yet to soften, voters seem not to trust the Tories on small boats despite a raft of policies and tough language while 14-hour long queues at the Port of Dover are a reminder not only that Brexit has downsides, but the Government still can’t admit to them.
If you’re a Labour MP or member, you are understandably scarred by the party’s ability to grab defeat from what at least seemed like the jaws of victory, not only in 1992 but 2015. That is why the local elections will prove a useful stress test, both for the parties and the polls.
But if you’re just a regular voter who takes a view every few years, I’d be tempted not to overthink it. Yes, Sunak has dragged his party back from a near-death experience. He is doing and saying things that give more voters a reason to back the Tories. But I’d grant this comeback narrative more credence if the prime minister didn’t feel he had to launch the Tory local election campaign in secret.
Narratives are handy in journalism, redemption stories even better. And all things being equal in British politics, the Tories usually win. But in order to do so, Sunak will have to overcome a proper economic and political shock which, while not impossible, doesn’t often happen.
In the comment pages, Philip Collins believes ‘Stevenage Woman’ shows how fast our priorities in politics have changed. Rob Rinder says that having dealt with the National Front, he’s developed a blueprint for handling online abuse. While Melanie McDonagh admits to being a sucker for the self-help bookshelf, but reckons that doing the laundry doesn’t need a philosophy.
And finally, how’s this for forward guidance: the perfect way to use Easter leftovers before you even enjoy firsts.
